Updated Projections - Game 114 of 162
Singleton starts rally, Tucker finishes it
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 70.4%
Preseason Projections: 29.6%
Season Projections
Jon Singleton makes his debut in the projections, after making his re-debut for the Astros and starting the 9th-inning rally.
Tucker now projects to 30 SB.
Not a good outing by Valdez, but he went 7, which shouldn’t be overlooked when the bullpen is in danger of overuse.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 114.
Bullpen Usage
Only two bullpen arms used after an off day means the bullpen is in good shape for today.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Good numbers for Javier vs. Orioles, with the caveat that those are pre-2023 numbers and Javier has not been the same pitcher this season.
K Prop
With the warning that 2023 Javier has not been the same as pre-2023 Javier, the market is at 4.5 and my number comes in at 5.91. I would tend to bet the over as long as it is below 5. At 5 I would not bet it and at 5.5 and above take the under.
Odds
Houston is +110 on the MoneyLine and -182 at +1.5 on the Run Line.
+110 implies a 47.62% chance of winning.
I like the +1.5 at -182 better in this scenario, though I’m not sure the math would agree.
To that end, I’m working on something that would make these decisions more math based in the future.
Projected Standings
As I discussed yesterday, injuries are going to be a factor down the stretch and the news that Shane McClanahan is likely done for the year is a big one in Tampa.
Luck Rankings
Using yesterday’s luck rankings where the Astros were at 1.48, we see that the one-run win, overall won/loss record and season run differential has bumped the Astros to 2.11. Meaning 2.11% of the Astros winning percentage is estimated to be luck.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Jose Abreu since July 30:
.065/.147/.065 .114 wOBA .000 ISO -39 wRC+ [34 plate appearances]
Kyle Tucker vs. LHP: .343/.410/.599 1.009 OPS 191 OPS+
Kyle Tucker w/RISP: .396/.452/.634 1.085 OPS 186 OPS+
Thanks for reading!