Updated Projections - Game 117 of 162

What a blast

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 72.2%

Preseason Projections: 27.8%

Season Projections

What a night for Jon Singleton.

Win No. 251 for JV.

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 117.

Bullpen Usage

Maton hasn’t been effective, but let’s hope he’s not injured, or if he is, it’s shorter term.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Neither starter with sparkling numbers against the oppo.

K Prop

The number is 5.5 and my number is way below that at 3.27. Under.

Odds

Houston is -190, which implies a 65.52% chance of winning for the Astros on the MoneyLine.

The Astros are also -1.5 at +105, which is almost the same as yesterday, but without JV on the mound.

My model shows a 49.87% chance of the Astros covering the Run Line.

I’ll take the ML at -190 and also take the coin flip at -1.5.

Projected Standings

Just for grins, Fangraphs shows a virtual tie between the Astros and Rangers, with the Rangers percentage points ahead.

The Astros getting healthier and the Rangers facing injury make that a possibility, and I see some of it in how the race has tightened.

That said, I still currently project the Rangers at 98 wins.

That means they need to go 29-17 (.630) to hit my number, which seems unlikely or 24-22 (.522) to hit FGs number, which also seems unlikely.

Maybe 95?

For the Astros, my numbers imply a 26-19 finish (.578), as does FG.

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Jeremy Pena in August:

.333/.442/.389 wOBA.376 and ISO of .056.

Pena has displayed almost 0 power, with his last HR coming July 5 (125 plate appearances) and totaling 2 extra-base hits (both doubles) in 36 August at-bats.

Thanks for reading!