Updated Projections - Game 118 of 162
Tucker projected for 29.9/30
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 72.8%
Preseason Projections: 27.2%
Season Projections
Tucker just a tick below 30/30, but if you round up…
More importantly, as of this morning, he projects (not “on pace”) to lead the team in games played, hits, doubles, RBI and stolen bases.
With Maton on the disabled list, it will be up to Abreu to battle Neris for the most appearances.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 118.
Bullpen Usage
Abreu and Neris used in a blowout with 4 games to go until an off day. With Stanek, Graveman and Montero used the day prior and Mushinski just recalled, I get it, but not optimal.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Urquidy has done well historically against the Angels. Let’s see if that holds in his second start of the IL.
K Prop
The number for Urquidy is 4.5 and my number is 3.73. I was wrong yesterday, but I’m on the under again.
Odds
Houston is -162, which implies a 61.83% chance of winning for the Astros on the MoneyLine. I would take this.
The Astros are also -1.5 at +126. My numbers are showing a 47.28% chance of the Astros covering the 1.5, so it may be worth it to take a shot at the +126.
Projected Standings
Luck Rankings
May not mean anything notes of the day
Quality Start Update:
QS: 53
Astros Record in QS: 39-14 (.736)
Astros Record w/o QS: 29-36 (.446)
Average Astros QS 2023: 6.6IP 4.4H 1.7R 1.5ER 5.9K 1.7BB 2.04ERA
Starters Record in QS: 32-9 Relievers Record in QS: 7—5
fWAR since August 1:
1 Jose Altuve 1.1
2 Kyle Tucker 0.5
3 Jeremy Pena 0.5
4 Alex Bregman 0.2
5 Yainer Diaz 0.2
6 Chas McCormick 0.2
7 Jon Singleton 0.2
8 Martin Maldonado 0.1
9 Jake Meyers 0.1
10 Mauricio Dubon 0.1
11 Yordan Alvarez 0.1
12 Corey Julks 0.0
13 Grae Kessinger -0.1
14 Jose Abreu -0.4
Since August 1:
8-3 record
Team ERA: 3.47 Starters ERA: 4.43 Relievers ERA: 1.45
Batters: .267/.362/.442 w/.351 wOBA 17 HR 126 wRC+
Thanks for reading!