Updated Projections - Game 120 of 162

One step forward, two steps back

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 74.1%

Preseason Projections: 25.9%

Season Projections

Altuve is on fire.

7.2 strong from Framber, then…

Astros 162

Click on the image for episode 120.

Bullpen Usage

Only Neris used last night and only for 8 pitches.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Cueto has surprisingly good numbers against Astros.

K Prop

The number is 5.5 and my number comes in at 6 even. I don’t have a good feel for the 2023 version of Javier, so this is a stay away for me.

Odds

The Astros are -132, which equates to a 56.90% implied win probability.

The run line drops it down to a 43.51% probability with my numbers.

I don’t like either of these with Javier on the mound and the team 2 for 20 with RISP over the last two games.

Projected Standings

Luck Rankings

May not mean anything notes of the day

Yordan’s last 9 games: .143/.231/.229 .213 wOBA 30 wRC+ (39 PA)

Jose Altuve last 16 games: .446/.532/.692 .518 wOBA 242 wRC+ (77 PA) 5 2B 3 HR 10 RBI 11 BB 7/8 SB

O-Swing% (season)

1. Yainer Diaz 48.9

2. Mauricio Dubon 43.3

3. Jose Abreu 38.9

4. Jeremy Pena 38.4

5. Martin Maldonado 34.9

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Since August 1:

8-5 record

Team ERA: 3.42 Starters ERA: 4.17 Relievers ERA: 1.78

Batters: .261/.354/.416 w/.339 wOBA 17 HR 117 wRC+

Thanks for reading!