Updated Projections - Game 122 of 162
Stops, starts, piles of runs
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 75.3%
Preseason Projections: 24.7%
Season Projections
Chas’ career season continues. My numbers project him to 20 home runs, 61 RBI and 14 SB.
Two rookies, Brown and France, project to double-digit wins.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 122.
Bullpen Usage
The bullpen, which has been lights out in August (see below), is in good shape to start the Mariners series.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Both France and Miller have good numbers against today’s opponents.
K Prop
No prop listed at prep time, but my number comes in at 5.29.
Odds
Astros -152 on the MoneyLine implies a win probability of 60.32% which seems high to me.
The Run Line number is +134, which implies a 42.74% chance of hitting. My number comes in at 45.67%, which leaves a 3% value (I hate that word in this context) on the Astros -1.5.
Projected Standings
Luck Rankings
May not mean anything notes of the day
Chas since June 1:
216 PA .324/.417/.595 13 HR 36 RBI 9 SB .429 wOBA 180 wRC+
Rafael Montero since July 1:
16 G 17.2 IP 5 R 4 ER 20 K 11 BB 1 HBP 94.6% LOB 2.04 ERA 4.43 xFIP
Montero’s high LOB% and low BABIP (.114) during this time, suggest there’s a possibility of regression looming.
Since August 1:
Record: 10-5
Team ERA: 3.50 Starters ERA: 4.53 Relievers ERA: 1.44
Batters: .264/.358/.442 w/.349 wOBA 23 HR 124 wRC+
Thanks for reading!
