Updated Projections - Game 14 of 162

Ugly

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 8.6%

Preseason Projections: 91.4%

The Astros are 4-10.

Season Projections

Jose Altuve continues to rake.

There are some ugly numbers below.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1

Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1

Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:

Valdez 1 | Javier 1

I never imagined this many low-stress pitches on the bullpen. May need to rethink the calculation.

Opted not to include Kessinger.

The Game Turned When

When they stepped on the field?

Actually, Fangraphs says the highest win probability added was in the bottom of the first with a man on first and 0 outs when Bobby Witt Jr. singled to center (Grounder). Maikel Garcia advanced to 3B. Bobby Witt Jr. advanced to 2B.

This moved the Royals win probability from 58.4% to 67.9% (+9.5%).

The Home Run Project

A low-leverage home run for Yainer.

The Grumpy Ump

We can’t blame the umps for the cluster that was yesterday, but for the 8th time in 14 games the umps are under 90% on called strike accuracy.

The under is 8-5-1 in Astros games.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Given the dearth of games yesterday, decided to update AL West only, where Astros, Rangers and A’s were all in action.

New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues

Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.

Stat(s) of the Day

We introduced bullpen shutdowns and meltdowns during the offseason and mentioned how good Hector Neris was at shutdowns.

Here’s where we are as of today.

Yes, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader have combined for 2 shutdowns and 5 meltdowns.

Thanks for reading!