Updated Projections - Game 153 of 162
Let's hang on to what we got
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 94.4%
Preseason Projections: 5.6%
Season Projections
Clutch hitting late for Pena, McCormick and Dubon.
A nice start by Javier.
Bullpen Usage
A Thursday of rest.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
A nice matchup to start the series.
Projected Standings
Projected Playoff Teams:
AL Division Winners: Astros, Orioles, Twins
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays/Mariners
Notes: Obviously the AL West and AL East are up for grabs and it’s very fluid with the Rangers and Mariners facing off 7 times in the last 10 regular season games.
Right now, it looks like one of the three teams contending in the AL West won’t make the playoffs, but there’s also a good chance all three could, with the Blue Jays projected only 0.21 games ahead of the Mariners with 9ish games left.
NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Diamondbacks/Cubs/Reds/Marlins
Notes: The Divisions in the NL are settled and the second and third wildcard spots are up in the air, with the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Reds and Marlins all currently projected within 2 games of each other.
It all makes for a fascinating final week + of the season.
My goal is to update the entire MLB standings every day from here on out, but I should note that this model is designed to look more and more like the “real” standings as the season goes on. In other words, after game 161 these standings will look almost identical to the real world. After all, the regular season is 94.4% complete.
During the off-season, I plan to do a post-mortem, but a quick look back shows that after 100 games, I projected the Astros to 88 wins and with 52 games more information, I’m now at 90. Not too bad, but my Rangers projection has not aged as well (100 then, 90 now).
Luck Rankings
Interesting note that 3 of the 4 top teams in our luck rankings are contending for wild card spots in the NL, while the top 3 teams in the AL West are 23rd, 27th and 24th respectively in the rankings.
This suggests the NL teams have won more games than expected given their metrics (run differential, record in one-run games, record in extra innings) and the reverse is true for the AL West teams.
What that means for the stretch run and playoffs, I’m not sure, except the Marlins are really good in close games (31-13 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra innings), as are the Reds and Diamondbacks to a lesser degree).
The AL West contenders? All have losing records in one-run and extra-inning games.
Combined they are 54-64 in one-run games and 9-30 in extras.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Bryan Abreu since All-Star Break:
25G 24.1IP 11H 1R 1ER 26K 11BB 0.37 ERA 3.01FIP 4.18xFIP
Mauricio Dubon:
Late/Close: 57 PA .333/.386/.471 4BB 1HBP
RISP: 102 PA .305/.324/.389 3BB 1HBP
vs. LHP: 115 PA .333/.374/.500 6BB 1HBP
August/September
Record: 25-21
Team ERA: 4.43 Starters ERA: 5.02 Relievers ERA: 3.46
Batters: .281/.359/.484 w/.362 wOBA 75 HR 133 wRC+
September Only
Record: 8-10
Team ERA: 4.61 Starters ERA: 4.99 Relievers ERA: 3.97
Batters: .271/.346/.499 w/.360 wOBA 34 HR 131 wRC+
Thanks for reading!