Updated Projections - Game 18 of 162
Not three in a row
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 11.1%
Preseason Projections: 88.9%
The Astros are 6-12, in last place in the AL West and 3.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish and first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 49.2% chance of winning the Division.
Season Projections
Jose Altuve is batting .403. Jose Abreu is batting .102.
Better by Arrighetti.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Under 100 for Arrighetti on the Stress Meter.
Despite being suspended for the first two games, Bryan Abreu is on pace for 72 appearances, many of them high leverage with high stress indexes.
I only project him for 60 appearances, but his usage is something to keep an eye on.
This also shows you the value of projecting vs. “on pace for”, especially with a small sample.
There is a very good chance Abreu ends up closer to 60 appearances than the 72 he is on pace for in a small sample size.
The Game Turned When
Top 2, runners on 1st and 2nd, 2 outs, 1-0 Astros. Luis Guillorme singled to shortstop (Grounder). Travis d'Arnaud scored on error. Jarred Kelenic advanced to 3B on error. Error by Jeremy Pena.
This play moved the Braves win probability from 38.9% to 50.0% an increase of 11.2% (rounded).
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
After taking a body blow early, not a bad game by Tony Randazzo.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Ridiculous, but insightful.
The White Sox have a chance to be historically bad, but we saw this with the A’s last year and they improved over the course of the season.
Astros 26th, suggesting it will get somewhat better.
Stat(s) of the Day
In his last 12 starts, dating back to August 4, 2023, Hunter Brown is 3-8 with a 9.37 ERA, 6.35 FIP and 4.28 xFIP.
Brown has given up 71 hits, including 15 home runs over 49.0 innings during that span.
xwOBA through 18 games
Through 1/9th of the season, “starting centerfielder” Jake Meyers has started 10 games in center, while Mauricio Dubon has started 5.
Thanks for reading!