Updated Projections - Game 2 of 162
It's been a long two days
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 1.2%
Preseason Projections: 98.8%
EDITORS NOTE: We will be in Round Rock for the Sugar Land game this evening, so tomorrow’s update may be delayed.
It’s been a rough two days, especially for the bullpen, but there’s still 160 games to go.
Season Projections
Not much to see here after 2 games.
Yainer has started the season hot and now projects to .303/.340/.538.
It’s early, but the bullpen has looked hideous, but Javier recorded the Astros first QS of the season.
Stress Index
Bear with me on this as it’s a work in progress.
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
An encouraging start from Javier with an aLI of .99 on 90 pitches.
The bullpen is a mess after two games.
I had noticed Scott’s “career” hits per innings yesterday morning - 73 hits over 47 innings - and mentioned it to my son.
Is this really the best option? Especially in high leverage against the Yankees?
The Game Turned When
Top 7, 1 out, 2 on - Oswaldo Cabrera singled to left (Grounder). Anthony Volpe scored. Austin Wells advanced to 2B, dropping the Astros win probability from 62.0% to 43.9%.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Coming in the next few days as data gaps are filled.
I checked this morning and they’re useless at this point.
Check back on Thursday.
The Home Run Project
Charting the Leverage Index of every Astros home run.
Not much happening here.
Umpire Review
So far they’re having trouble calling strikes as Juan Soto has noticed.
Information courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat of the Day
Piling on the bullpen early, but having Tayler Scott and Rafael Montero on the mound in the two highest leverage situations in the game is not optimal.
Scott’s, detailed above, had a LI of 3.78.
Montero, walked Juan Soto with the bases loaded shortly thereafter, with a LI of 4.10.
Two games in the bullpen has 4 meltdowns, with 1 each from Montero, Pressly, Scott and Mushinski.
Thanks for reading!