Updated Projections - Game 23 of 162

No chance

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 14.2%

Preseason Projections: 85.8%

The Astros are 7-16, in last place in the AL West and 5.0 games out of first place.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish and second place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 35.3% chance of winning the Division and a 55.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Just a putrid offensive display Sunday.

Tough spot for Hunter Brown, but slide continues.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Low stress for Brown because game was over after 3 batters.

Team average stress per start is 87.52.

Note that two pitchers who average over 100 have both been placed on IL.

Low stress due to the score of game.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 1st, 0 outs, runner on 2nd. Jesse Winker singled to left (Liner). CJ Abrams scored. Washington’s win probability went from 60.7% to 67.5% (+6.8%).

The Home Run Project

No home runs (or runs) yesterday.

The Grumpy Ump

A pretty good game from Nate Tomlinson.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

The Astros currently project to 101 losses.

Houston is 0-6 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).

Houston is the only team without a one-run win.

Stat(s) of the Day

Hard Hit %

Prospecting - Jake Bloss

Jake Bloss was Houston’s 3rd round pick last season, No. 99 overall.

After pitching for the FCL Astros and Fayetteville last season, Bloss is now at A+ Asheville where he’s made 2 appearances (both starts), covering 8.1 innings, allowing 5 hits and a single earned run and recording a 0-1 record.

Control has been his issue throughout his career and though it’s early in the season, Bloss has walked 4, while striking out 10.

Thanks for reading!