Updated Projections - Game 24 of 162

Rinse, repeat

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 14.8%

Preseason Projections: 85.2%

The Astros are 7-17, in last place in the AL West and 5.5 games out of first place.

Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish and third place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 30.8% chance of winning the Division and a 48.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Jake smoked one, otherwise…

France and Brown have struggled. See Stats of Day below.

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Low stress for Brown because game was over after 3 batters.

Team average stress per start is 83.87.

Note that two pitchers who average over 100 have both been placed on IL.

One way to avoid stress is to fall behind in the first inning.

Three days of rest for high-leverage arms.

The Game Turned When

Bottom 1, runner on second, 1 out. Cody Bellinger homered (Fly). Ian Happ scored, moving Cubs win probability from 56.6% to 71.8% (+15.2%).

The Home Run Project

Jake Meyers: 37 degree launch angle, 101.1 MPH exit velo, 375 feet, 0.24 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

The Astros are now 0-2 with Andy Fletcher behind the plate.

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

The Astros currently project to 104 losses.

Houston is 0-6 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).

Houston is the only team without a one-run win.

Stat(s) of the Day

J.P. France and Hunter Brown as Starters 8.1.23-4.23.24

Average Exit Velocity

Team average 89.7 MLB average 88.7

Barrel %

Team average is 7.0% MLB average is 7.5%

Prospecting - Cam Fisher

Cam Fisher was chosen in the 4th round, No. 131 overall in 2023 after belting 30 home runs for the Charlotte 49ers.

In 2023 Fisher had stints with the FCL Astros and then hit 5 home runs and hit .273 with Fayetteville while striking out 44 times in 31 games.

Those trends have continued this season at A+ Asheville, with Fisher mashing 3 home runs on April 17th vs. Rome and another two days later.

In 43 at-bats on the season, the slugger is slashing .256/.396/.605 with 21 strikeouts.

Fisher is also 4 for 4 in stolen bases.

Thanks for reading!