Updated Projections - Game 3 of 162
Searching for a W
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 1.9%
Preseason Projections: 98.1%
Another tough loss and suboptimal bullpen showing.
Season Projections
Tuck dips under 30 projected home runs.
Hader has pitched in two non-save situations.
Stress Index
Bear with me on this as it’s a work in progress.
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
88 pitches with a 1.23 average leverage for Brown to make it through 4 innings.
Have to imagine Abreu and Mushinski down and Pressly a question mark after 17 pitches.
The Game Turned When
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Top 7, Oswaldo Cabrera homered (Fly). Austin Wells scored, moving the Yankees win probability from 24.2% to 50.0% (+25.8%).
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Coming in the next few days as data gaps are filled.
Check back on Thursday.
The Home Run Project
Charting the Leverage Index of every Astros home run.
Not much happening here.
The Grumpy Ump
New name, same info.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
Yainer Diaz is slashing .206/.247/.336 in 158 plate appearances as a DH in his career.
Houston’s bullpen had 70 meltdowns in 162 games last season and already has 6 in the first 3 games of 2024, with Ryan Pressly having 2 meltdowns in 2 appearances this season.
Thanks for reading!