Updated Projections - Game 30 of 162
10-20 doesn't sound so good
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 18.5%
Preseason Projections: 81.5%
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The Astros are 10-20, in last place in the AL West and 6.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, tied for 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 27.8% chance of winning the Division and a 44.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Cabbage is back, Chas to IL.
Jacob Amaya has been recalled.
No slight to Seth Martinez or Shawn Dubin intended, but having to rely on these typically low-leverage relievers in high-leverage situations is not a winning recipe.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
A quality start by JV, under 100 on the stress meter.
Team average stress per start is 86.42.
Note two pitchers who average over 100 have spent time on IL and now JV is over 100 average.
High stress for Pressly and Dubin.
The Game Turned When
Top 10, runners on first and second, 0 outs. Steven Kwan doubled to left (Liner). Gabriel Arias scored. Brayan Rocchio advanced to 3B. Guardians win probability went from 53.1% to 81.9% (28.8%).
The Home Run Project
Kyle Tucker with a high-leverage bomb.
Kyle Tucker: 26-degree launch angle, 107.6 MPH exit velocity, 422 feet, 1.91 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Data for Angel Hernandez not provided at time of publishing.
Under: 18 Over: 8 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 95 losses.
The Astros are last in the Luck Rankings, 1-8 in one-run games and 1-4 in extra innings (there is overlap).
Stat(s) of the Day
Spencer Arrighetti: ERA: 10.97 xERA: 4.36
Yordan Alvarez last 4 games: 3 for 17, 2 HR, 4 RBI, .176/.167/.529 83 wRC+
Alex Bregman last 4 games: 3 for 18, 1 HR, 4 RBI, .167/.167/.333 37 wRC+
The Astros are 30th in the Fangraphs baserunning metric BsR
After the games of May 1 last season, the Astros were 16-13, in second place, 1 game out of first.
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