Updated Projections - Game 33 of 162
Nothing doing
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 20.4%
Preseason Projections: 79.6%
The Astros are 12-21, tied for fourth in the AL West and 6.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, tied for 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 27.3% chance of winning the Division and a 44.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Not much happening last night with the bats. Not much at all.
Framber returns.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Framber now under 100 average.
Bielak shows his value.
The Game Turned When
Top 4, runner on 2nd, 0 outs, 1-0 Seattle. Mitch Garver doubled to right (Fly). Jorge Polanco scored. Mariners win probability moves from 68.8% to 78.2% (+9.4%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
Data not uploaded by press time, but another under.
Under: 20 Over: 10 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
20% through season and Houston has 12 wins and projects to 69-93.
Astros and Diamondbacks battling back and forth for unluckiest team in MLB.
Stat(s) of the Day
Joey Lopefido has faced right-handed pitchers in all 14 of his plate appearances.
Loperfido’s fly out to right-center in the 5th inning was Astros hardest hit ball of the night at 105.2 MPH, but only went 280 feet.
In his last 7 games Alex Bregman is slashing .148/.258/.259 with a wOBA of .245 and wRC+ of 57.
The Astros -1.0 WAR at 3rd base is the worst in the league. League average for 3rd base is 0.2.
League Average Pop-Up Rate is 7.1%. Houston pops up at a 6.1% rate. Alex Bregman’s pop-up rate is 18.0%.
