Updated Projections - Game 39 of 162
Motor City No Go
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 24.1%
Preseason Projections: 75.9%
The Astros are 14-25, in last place in the American League West, 7.0 games behind the Texas Rangers.
Fangraphs projects an 81-81 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 23.0% chance of winning the Division and a 36.0% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 2, bases loaded, 1 out, 1-0 Tigers. Mark Canha homered (Fly). Zach McKinstry scored. Jake Rogers scored. Riley Greene scored.
Tigers win probability went from 74.0% to 91.4% (+17.4%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs yesterday.
The Grumpy Ump
Early game today - Update not available at press time.
Under: 22 Over: 13 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 65-97. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Average Exit Velocity: Astros 89.5 MLB 88.8.
Average xwOBA: Astros .329 MLB .318
