Updated Projections - Game 40 of 162
Two Out of Three Ain't Bad
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 24.7%
Preseason Projections: 75.3%
No Updates on Sunday - I’ll be in Crawford Boxes
The Astros are 15-25, in 4th place in the American League West, 6.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, third place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 25.8% chance of winning the Division and a 40.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
The Game Turned When
Top 6, 1 on, 1 out, 0-0. Kyle Tucker homered (Fly). Mauricio Dubon scored.
Astros win probability went from 50.3% to 74.0% (+26.0%).
The Home Run Project
Kyle Tucker: 103.4 MPH exit velo, 36-degree launch, 365 feet, 1.77 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
100% on balls, 84% strikes. Yikes.
Under: 22 Over: 15 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 68-94. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
