Updated Projections - Game 41 of 162
Welcome back, Mr. Bregman
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 25.3%
Preseason Projections: 74.7%
No Updates on Sunday - I’ll be in Crawford Boxes
The Astros are 16-25, in 4th place in the American League West, 6.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 28..4% chance of winning the Division and a 44.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 3, 2 out, runner on first, 1-0 Astros. Kyle Tucker doubled to left (Fly). Jose Altuve scored.
Astros win probability went from 64.7% to 75.7% (+11.0%).
The Home Run Project
Alex Bregman: 98.3 MPH exit velo, 30-degree launch, 380 feet, 0.61 LI.
Alex Bregman: 104.4 MPH exit velo, 23-degree launch, 385 feet, 0.75 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 22 Over: 16 Push: 3
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 71-91. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Astros are 2-9 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
