Updated Projections - Game 50 of 162

On the road again

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 30.9%

Preseason Projections: 69.1

The Astros are 22-28, in 3rd place in the American League West, 5.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 33.7% chance of winning the Division and a 49.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Concerned about Verlander and Abreu’s stress level.

Verlander’s Saturday start was the second-highest for the team and himself and his average is right at 100.

Big Play

Top 5, 1 on, 1 out, 0-0. Kyren Paris homered (Fly). Mickey Moniak scored.

Astros win probability went from 49.7% to 26.2% (-23.5%).

The Home Run Project

No home runs yesterday.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 26 Over: 20 Push: 4

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 76-86. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 5-10 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Thank you for reading.