Updated Projections - Game 53 of 162
Two Out of Three Ain't Bad
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 32.7%
Preseason Projections: 67.3
The Astros are 24-29, in 3rd place in the American League West, 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 41.3% chance of winning the Division and a 52.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Biggest Play
Top 4, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs, 1-0 Astros. Jose Altuve singled to left (Grounder). Jake Meyers scored. Mauricio Dubon scored.
Astros win probability went from 64.3% to 81.6% (+17.3%).
Listen to Parker and Marty discuss the Astros first 50 games
The Home Run Project
Kyle Tucker: 105.1 MPH exit velo, 33-degree launch angle, 403 feet, 0.67 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 28 Over: 21 Push: 4
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 78-84. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
The Astros are 5-10 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Down on the Farm
We profiled 2023, third-round pick Jake Bloss back at the end of February.
Bloss has split his time between Asheville and Corpus and has been successful at both, combining for a 2-2 record, but 1.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP between the two.
We noted in our earlier eval that Bloss has good stuff, but struggled with control like a lot of young arms.
To that end, Bloss has walked 14 in 38.2 innings on the season, but only 6 in 21.1 innings since his promotion to Corpus.
After giving up just 11 hits in 17.1 innings at Asheville, Bloss has been even better in Corpus, allowing 9 hits in those 21.1 innings.
On May 12, shortly after his promotion to AA, he was named the Texas League Pitcher of the Week.
Thank you for reading.