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Updated Projections - Game 53 of 162
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Updated Projections - Game 53 of 162

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad

Marty Coleman
May 27, 2024
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Updated Projections - Game 53 of 162
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Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 32.7%

Preseason Projections: 67.3

The Astros are 24-29, in 3rd place in the American League West, 3.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 84-78 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 41.3% chance of winning the Division and a 52.8% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Astros Projections is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Biggest Play

Top 4, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs, 1-0 Astros. Jose Altuve singled to left (Grounder). Jake Meyers scored. Mauricio Dubon scored.

Astros win probability went from 64.3% to 81.6% (+17.3%).


Listen to Parker and Marty discuss the Astros first 50 games

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The Home Run Project

Kyle Tucker: 105.1 MPH exit velo, 33-degree launch angle, 403 feet, 0.67 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 28 Over: 21 Push: 4

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings and Luck Rankings

Astros project to 78-84. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

The Astros are 5-10 in one-run games.

Stat(s) of the Day

Down on the Farm

We profiled 2023, third-round pick Jake Bloss back at the end of February.

Prospecting - Jake Bloss and Cam Fisher

Prospecting - Jake Bloss and Cam Fisher

Marty Coleman
·
February 29, 2024
Read full story

Bloss has split his time between Asheville and Corpus and has been successful at both, combining for a 2-2 record, but 1.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP between the two.

We noted in our earlier eval that Bloss has good stuff, but struggled with control like a lot of young arms.

To that end, Bloss has walked 14 in 38.2 innings on the season, but only 6 in 21.1 innings since his promotion to Corpus.

After giving up just 11 hits in 17.1 innings at Asheville, Bloss has been even better in Corpus, allowing 9 hits in those 21.1 innings.

On May 12, shortly after his promotion to AA, he was named the Texas League Pitcher of the Week.

Thank you for reading.

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Updated Projections - Game 53 of 162
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Nov 14, 2024 • 
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2025 Projection: Framber Valdez
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