Updated Projections - Game 54 of 162
Early Trouble
NO UPDATES ON THURSDAY MAY 30
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 33.3%
Preseason Projections: 66.7
The Astros are 24-30, in 3rd place in the American League West, 4.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 35.2% chance of winning the Division and a 47.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Biggest Play
Top 5, runners on 1st and 3rd, 1 out, 3-0 Mariners. Jose Abreu singled to center (Liner). Jake Meyers scored. Jon Singleton advanced to 3B.
Astros win probability went from 21.5% to 32.0% (+10.4%).
Listen to Parker and Marty discuss the Astros first 50 games
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 29 Over: 21 Push: 4
Astros are 0-2 with Larry Vanover behind the plate and his Called Strike Accuracy was the second worst of the season behind only, you guessed it, Angel Hernandez.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Astros project to 77-85. See Stats of the Day below for additional projections.
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
The Astros are 5-11 in one-run games.
Stat(s) of the Day
Down on the Farm
We profiled 2023, fourth-round pick Cam Fisher back at the end of February and even noted his 3 home run game in late April.
After slashing .242/.373/.597 in April, Fisher has gone hitless in May, and is an astounding 0 for 50, with 34 strikeouts for the month.
On the season, Fisher is slashing .134/.312/.642 at A+ Asheville.
Thank you for reading.