Updated Projections - Game 67 of 162
Ugly
A Note from the Publisher
We are in the process of rebranding to “Crawford Street Journal”. The reasons are simple. Thanks to our readers, what started as only “projections” for the season has grown into much more.
We’re still in the same place, or you can bookmark crawfordstreetjournal.com.
More to come.
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 41.4%
Preseason Projections: 58.6%
The Astros are 30-37, in 3rd place in the American League West, 7.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 20.4% chance of winning the Division and a 36.0% chance of making the playoffs.
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Season Projections
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is straightforward: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Arrighetti was significantly over 100 for start.
The bullpen, despite an off day and complete game back to back, is shot.
The way the bullpen is being used it’s essentially a six-man pen which compounds the stress and taxes an already questionable group.
Biggest Play
Bottom 10, 0 outs, runners on first and second, 3-2 Astros. Patrick Bailey singled to center (Liner). Brett Wisely scored. Heliot Ramos advanced to 2B.
Astros win probability went from 49.0% to 18.9% (-30.1%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night.
The Grumpy Ump
Under: 39 Over: 24 Push: 4
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are currently “unluckiest” team in MLB.
The Astros are 5-14 in one-run games.
The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Stat(s) of the Day
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “keeping your team in the game”.
Saves and Such
Everyone knows saves and blown saves. Shutdowns and Meltdowns are a Fangraphs stat that I find very useful.
Ronel Blanco
Blanco has 6 quality starts in 11 starts on the season.
Blanco has an ERA of 2.78 with an xERA of 3.53, a FIP of 4.23 and an xFIP of 4.21.
Those numbers and a BABIP of .201 suggest regression may be on tap for Blanco, some of which we saw in his last start.
Blanco’s BB% of 10.4% is in the 25th percentile, while his K% of 22.8% is in the 52nd percentile.
Blanco’s four-seam fastball (average velo 93.5 MPH) has a .183 average against, but a .235 xBA.
Opponents are batting .198 off his slider and .174 off his changeup.
Clutch [Fangraphs]
In the words of David Appelman, this calculation measures, “…how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” It also compares a player against himself, so a player who hits .300 in high leverage situations when he’s an overall .300 hitter is not considered clutch.
Quick Guide
Excellent 2.0
Great 1.0
Above Average 0.5
Average 0.0
Below Average -0.5
Poor -1.0
Awful -2.0
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
Thank you for reading.