Updated Projections - Game 69 of 162

Lost in San Fran

A Note from the Publisher

We are in the process of rebranding to “Crawford Street Journal”. The reasons are simple. Thanks to our readers, what started as only “projections” for the season has grown into much more.

We’re still in the same place, or you can bookmark crawfordstreetjournal.com.

More to come.

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Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 42.6%

Preseason Projections: 57.4%

The Astros are 31-38, in 3rd place in the American League West, 8.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 82-80 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 17.1% chance of winning the Division and a 35.0% chance of making the playoffs.

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Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is straightforward: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.

Biggest Play

Bottom 4, 1 out, bases loaded, 2-1 Giants. Austin Slater singled to center (Liner). Jorge Soler scored. Brett Wisely scored. Mike Yastrzemski advanced to 3B.

Astros win probability went from 22.2%% to 10.0% (-12.1%).

The Home Run Project

Yordan Alvarez: 106.3 MPH exit velo, 25-degree launch angle, 405 feet,1.15 LI.

The Grumpy Ump

Under: 40 Over: 25 Push: 4

NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.

Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.

Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

Astros are currently “unluckiest” team in MLB.

The Astros are 5-14 in one-run games.

The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).

Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.

.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.

In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).

Stat(s) of the Day

Quality Starts

Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.

It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.

Simply put, it’s indicative of “keeping your team in the game”.

Saves and Such

Everyone knows saves and blown saves. Shutdowns and Meltdowns are a Fangraphs stat that I find very useful.

Bats in June

Jose Abreu Since Return

43 PA 2 HR 4 RBI .167/.186/.333 .225 wOBA 44 wRC+

Starting Pitching Length

MLB Power Rankings

On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.

These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.

50.00 = 40.50 wins

75.00 = 60.75 wins

100.00 = 81.00 wins

125.00 = 101.25 wins

Thank you for reading.