Updated Projections - Game 9 of 162
Broken
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 5.6%
Preseason Projections: 94.4%
Ugly in Arlington, part 2.
Season Projections
It is a big struggle bus in several areas, with first base standing out.
With France reinstated, Mushinski was the odd man out.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Decent enough performance against Rangers for France.
I generally don’t make sweeping, X-type comments or evals, but Pressly looks broken.
Could it be fixed? Sure, but the plan has not come to fruition as none of the three (Abreu, Pressly and Hader) have performed up to expectations.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 6th, 2-2 game, 2 outs, runner on 3rd. Marcus Semien singled to left (Liner) off Bryan Abreu. Leody Taveras scored, moving Rangers win probability from 56.1% to 71.1% (+15.0%).
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Will publish these tomorrow no matter what. And they are wild.
The Home Run Project
No home runs last night for Houston.
The Grumpy Ump
From the best umped game of the season to one of the worst.
Umps still struggling calling strikes, with the 86.89% average accuracy in Astros games below the 88% average per umpscorecards.com.
The under is now 6-2-1 in Astros games.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
The Astros are slashing .213/.281/.240 with RISP after 9 games.
Starting pitchers ERA: 2.49 (4th)
Bullpen ERA: 7.31 (28th)
The Astros rank 29th in Fangraphs Baserunning Metric (BsR)
Thanks for reading!