Updated Projections - Game 92 of 162

Feels so right

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 56.8%

Preseason Projections: 43.2%

Editor’s Note

I’m day to day. So far today is a good day, but for the next week or so, let’s just say I’m experiencing “discomfort” that may hold me out of the lineup.

Season Projections

How fun was it to score 7 whole runs in a game? Even though the Astros are technically scoring more runs than they did at this point last season, it sure doesn’t feel like it.

• Yesterday’s post and last night’s game was so much fun. Talk about Dubon not being the same offensively as Altuve, while wearing a Dubon tee shirt for surgery, by the way, and he comes through with a big hit.

• But other things I talked about discussed here were on point.

  • Pena’s questionable defense

  • The “fresh” bullpen being used to the max

  • Neris starting to give up hard hits after a stellar year to date (more on this below)

  Such is life when you put things in writing about baseball day after day and that’s why we love baseball. Crazy stuff happens all the time and it can be a game of literal inches, like some of those pitches were literally inches outside on A. Bregman.

  Onward.

The news of a setback in Alvarez’s scheduled rehab is disappointing and could be a season changer. Is it a couple of days? Couple weeks? Month? Who knows with the Astros.

With 2 walks last night, Corey Julks is now up to a 12.0% walk rate since June 1, after walking just 4 times in his first 143 plate appearances (2.8%). Consequently, this has helped his OPS go from .671 to .822 and his wRC+ now sits at 106 and OPS+ at 104.

I made an update to the stolen base projections. In short, all players were set to a “pace” calculation that didn’t include previous seasons in the calculation. Only players with 0 previous MLB experience should have calculated this way and the others’ calculations should have included previous history weighted appropriately. The update places Julks (a rookie, with a projection that includes “pace” only) ahead of Tucker who’s projection includes 2023 and Tucker’s previous stolen base numbers weighted.

If Rock and Roll is your thing, Brad is your guy.

Neris now projecting to 72 appearances, which is the highest I can remember.

Weird note. Phil Maton is projected to hit 10 of 299 batters faced. Framber Valdez is projected to hit 9 of 758 batters faced.

In addition, Maton hit 15 of the first 950 batters he faced - 1 in 63.333. In the last two seasons he’s hit 15 of 457 - 1 in 30.467.

Just wondering whether the outing by J.P. France is an outlier or the Astros are stretching him thin (Yes, I know there was a break).

France has pitched between 100-114 innings in his three full minor league seasons and is now sitting at 85.2 between Sugar Land and Houston and projected for 143-144 between the two teams in 2023.

Something to keep an eye on.

Ryan Pressly is now projected for 32 saves. T.K. and Blummer mentioned it on the broadcast last night, but since June 18:

11 G, 12.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 14 K, 4 BB, 9 saves, 9 shutdowns, 0 meltdowns, 0 barrels allowed and an average exit velocity of 86.0 MPH.

Astros 162

Have not done game 92 yet, but this will be updated a couple of times per week while I am recovering/rehabbing.

Bullpen Usage

One day after a “fresh start”, every leverage arm used and I imagine Martinez and Abreu may be down today.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).

Lots of experience, mostly good, for Framber vs. the Angels, and selfishly I could use a W from Mr. Valdez.

Half as much experience and about half as much success for Detmers against this group of Astros.

K Prop

The number for Valdez is 6.5 and he has plenty of history that suggests over is the way to go. My number is 8.13 and I’m going over.

Odds

Astros are -148 on ML and +116 -1.5 and I’ll take both. I like both and here’s why: I like Framber vs. Detmers and the way the Astros hit the ball last night. -1.5 is obviously a “risk”, but only 21.7% of Astros games have been decided by one run and only 23.9% of both teams’ games have been one run games.

Plus, if the Astros lose the -1.5 makes no difference. Not a mathematician, but the odds of the game ending with the Astros winning by one run is small.

Projected Standings & Luck Rankings

Current Playoff Projections:

AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins

AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros

NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

NL Wild Cards: Diamondbacks, Marlins, Giants

It’s only been 4 games since we projected these, but for transparency sake:

Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-2 ✔︎

Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 1-3 ✔︎

Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 4-0 ✕

Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 1-2 ✕

Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 3-1 ✔︎

Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 2-2 ✔︎

The Brewers have jumped up in the projected standings and in the Luck Rankings. They have tied the Marlins, which is the first time this season I can recall anyone other than the Marlins with even a slice of the top spot.

Let’s investigate:

Brewers: 1-Run Games: 17-7 Extra Innings: 5-2 Run Differential: -12

Marlins: 1-Run Games: 21-6 Extra Innings: 4-1 Run Differential: -8

In the wild NL Central the Brewers and Reds are tied for first at 50-42, but both have negative run differentials (Reds at -10) and the only team in the division with a positive run differential - the Cubs - are 7 games behind. What?

A reminder that a positive number means the team has been lucky, 0 means neutral and negative means unlucky.

Most of this revolves around one-run and extra-inning games, with a dash of run differential and actual wins-losses tossed in.

May not mean anything notes of the day

• We wrote about Jeremy Pena’s defense and he had another lackadaisical-looking play last night that cost the Astros two runs. He makes fantastic plays at times and it’s my age showing, but I would take the routine plays 99% of the time. Not a good year in the field despite what is said on TV.

• We mentioned Hector Neris’s recent struggles with the long ball (3 HR in the last 22 batters faced) and he gave up a bomb last night, so I investigated a bit.

  • Through June 30: FB MPH 92.8 EV 84.3 HardHit% 24.3

  • July: FB MPH 92.8 EV 87.0 HardHit% 25.0

    His velocity is the same, with average exit velocity and HardHit% barely up. Nothing to see there, really.

So, let’s dive deeper:

• Through June 30: Pitching+: 99 Location+: 100 Stuff+: 103

• July: Pitching+: 97 Location+: 98 Stuff+: 95

  Realizing that we are only talking 5 appearances (and innings) in July, the sample size is small, but the significant drop is in Neris’ stuff.

  Make of that what you will, but perhaps it’s something to keep an eye on.

  Thanks for reading!