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Updated Projections - Game 93 of 162
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Updated Projections - Game 93 of 162

How Sweep It Is

Marty Coleman
Jul 12, 2024
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Updated Projections - Game 93 of 162
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Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:

Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal


Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 57.4%

Preseason Projections: 42.6%

The Astros are 49-44, in 2nd place in the American League West, 2.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.

Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 42.7% chance of winning the Division and a 59.9% chance of making the playoffs.

Season Projections

Stress Index

The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.

The calculation is straightforward: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.


Astros Projections is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The Home Run Project

No home runs last night.

OVER | UNDER

Under: 53 Over: 37 Push: 3

Under: 57.0% Over: 39.8% Push: 3.2%

Streak: 1 Over

If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.

Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck

Through games of 7.11.34

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

Astros are 25th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.

The Astros are 7-16 in one-run games.

The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).

Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.

.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.

In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).

Stat(s) of the Day

Quality Starts

Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.

It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.

Simply put, it’s indicative of “keeping your team in the game”.

Season Long wRC+ and WAR

Rolling 30-Day Batting

Rolling 30-Day Arms

MLB Power Rankings

On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.

These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.

50.00 = 40.50 wins

75.00 = 60.75 wins

100.00 = 81.00 wins

125.00 = 101.25 wins

Thank you for reading.

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Updated Projections - Game 93 of 162
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Nov 14, 2024 • 
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Crawford Street Journal
The Future: Jacob Melton
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Crawford Street Journal
2025 Projection: Framber Valdez
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