Updated Projections - Game 94 of 162
By a thread
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 58.0%
Preseason Projections: 42.0%
Editor’s Note
I’m day to day. For the next week or so, let’s just say I’m experiencing “discomfort” that may hold me out of the lineup.
Season Projections
We’re 58% of the way through the season and what a bizarre weekend in LA LA Land, ending with a series win. Somehow. Some way.
Kyle Tucker jumps up to take the lead in average, hits, doubles and RBI, while remaining two projected stolen bases behind Julks for the team lead.
McCormick’s big series now has him projected for 17 home runs and a .828 OPS.
Both Neris and Maton projecting to 72 appearances and there’s a real danger of exhaustion as the season continues.
Joel Kuhnel made his first appearance and it’s my belief that he should be looked at as an innings eater and anything more than that is gravy. I’ve got him currently projected at only 18 innings and while that’s not much, that’s 18 the leverage arms won’t have to shoulder (literally).
Astros 162
Updated through 94 games. Please note: If I sound drugged, I am. Pain medication has made my slow, southern drawl, even slower.
E92, 93 and 94 can be found here.
Bullpen Usage
Back to Kuhnel - him throwing that 1.2 IP Sunday allowed some combination of Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Stanek and Martinez two days off as the Rockies series begins.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).
At press time the Rockies have not announced a starter and Hunter Brown has faced exactly one Rockie.
K Prop
None were listed at press time and it wouldn’t matter anyway as Brown doesn’t have enough experience against the Rockies to bet one way or another.
Odds
Astros -210 on the MoneyLine and -150 -1.5 which is way too rich for me on both ends.
Projected Standings & Luck Rankings
The biggest news is we have the Marlins dropping out of playoffs as things stand now.
Current Playoff Projections:
AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins
AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros [with Red Sox nipping at heels]
NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies
As of this morning, the ACTUAL playoffs would look like this:
AL Division Winners: Rays, Rangers, Twins
AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros [with 1.5 game lead on Red Sox]
NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Marlins [by half-game over Phillies]
In short, I have 11 of the same playoff teams in order, with the lone exception being I have the Phillies over the Marlins.
Luck Rankings
It’s only been a few games since we projected these, but for transparency's sake:
Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-5 ✔︎
Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 1-5 ✔︎
Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 6-1 ✕
Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 2-5 ✔︎
Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 3-4 ✕
Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 3-4 x
May not mean anything notes of the day
Per Fangraphs Hector Neris has 20 shutdown appearances and only 3 meltdowns on the season.
Montero, Maton and Abreu all have 9 meltdowns, Pressly 7 and Stanek 6, with none of that group having more than 17 shutdowns (Pressly).
After averaging 96.2 MPH on his four-seamer on the season, Joel Kuhnel averaged only 93.8 Sunday night and topped out at 95.7.
Given Sunday’s results, we have to, right?
Since June 1:
Chas: .340/.426/.610 7 HR 18 RBI .441 wOBA 188 wRC+ [115 PA]
Tuck: .340/.419/.569 7 HR 29 RBI .416 wOBA 171 wRC+ [168 PA]
Thanks for reading!
Keep on keepin' on, Marty! Thanks again for the spotlight on FR&B! Your readers might like to know where to supplement and add to their "Astros Projections"----Behind the Astros Dugout! No game coverage, but fun features and bios on our favorite players!
https://bradkyle.substack.com/s/behind-the-astros-dugout Moms of Alex Bregman and J.J. Matijevich have subscribed, and many players, too, have been known to read my 'Stro-scribin'! Thanks again, and rapid healing for ya!