Updated Projections - Game 98 of 162
Just a bit outside
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 60.5%
Preseason Projections: 39.5%
Season Projections
Tucker is up to these projected numbers: .291/.365/.512 28 HR 107 RBI.
The first two are significantly higher than my preseason projection of .271/.340/.504, but I was close on the power and fairly close on RBI.
Anecdotal, but lately I’ve been of the thought that Framber is just a tick below the “ace” designation of say, a Verlander. It’s something that’s difficult to quantify, but Valdez seems to fall apart for an inning when the slightest thing goes against him, be it a bloop hit, a bad call or just luck.
The 5th inning Friday night was an example. Verlander likely recovers and gives up a run on average. Valdez gave up 3 and let the A’s back in the game, necessitating the use of the high-leverage relievers in a game the Astros had in hand.
It’s not a coincidence that the television crew was talking about the Astros “hanging on for the win” in the sixth inning against the worst team in baseball.
Maton takes over the lead in projected appearances.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 98.
Bullpen Usage
It may sound like I’m picking on a very good pitcher, like Valdez, but those innings have consequences, especially long-term. Theoretically, the Astros could have gotten away using Martinez, Maton and maybe Montero (or some similar combo), but instead had to use all of their high-leverage relievers, with two games to go before the off day and one would think Pressly might not be available today, or perhaps for either of the next two games.
To be fair, Pressly may not be needed either day and the point may be moot this time, but we shall see.
To be clear, I think Valdez is a very good pitcher and likely the best starter on the Astros, but perhaps a notch below an “ace” in the mold of a Verlander, someone you “know” a 5-1 lead is safe with.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).
The A’s have hit Javier decently, but Cristian has done well against Seth Brown.
On the flip side, Blackburn has owned Tucker.
K Prop
5.5 is the number for Javier and my number comes in at 4.19. I will be on the under.
Odds
Astros -198 on the MoneyLine and -118 -1.5. Not worth the risk on the ML, but I think it’s worth the gamble on the run line.
Projected Standings & Luck Rankings
Astros gain a game in real standings vs. Rangers, but have been projected at 88 wins for several days in a row. The Rangers are coming back to the pack a bit, if anything.
Current Playoff Projections:
AL Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins
AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros
In the real world, the Astros are the second Wild Card team, a half-game ahead of the Blue Jays.
NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies
Phillies now project to 2 games better than Marlins, but only 1 game ahead of Reds for the final projected Wild Card spot.
In actual standings,Phillies, Reds and Marlins are in a virtual tie for final NL Wild Card spot.
Luck Rankings
Since we projected these:
Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-8 ✔︎
Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 4-7 ✔︎
Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 8-3 ✕
Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 3-8 ✕
Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 6-5 ✔︎
Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 6-5 ✔︎
May not mean anything notes of the day
Since Yordan last played, the Astros are 19-16, with these stats:
ERA 4.56 Starters ERA 4.74 Relievers 4.27 14 Saves 8 Blown Saves
Batting: .256/.323/.436 with .328 wOBA 110 wRC+
Some Rando numbers:
Mauricio Dubon since All-Star Break: Slashing .206/.229/.206 with 0 extra-base hits.
Alex Bregman since All-Star Break: Slashing .355/.394/.710 with 3 HR and 6 RBI in 7 games.
Kyle Tucker since June 1: Slashing .346/.421/.623 10 HR 35 RBI 184 wRC+
Jose Abreu since June 1: 281/.310/.469 7 HR 30 RBI 112 wRC+
Chas McCormick since June 1: .342/.427/.605 8 HR 21 RBI 188 wRC+ 6 of 7 SB.
Jeremy Pena since All-Star Break: .154/.185./154 1 RBI -9 wRC+
Martin Maldonado since All-Star Break: .100/.100/.150 2 RBI -44 wRC+
J.P. France away from Minute Maid Park: 4-2 2.05 ERA in 48.1 IP
Opponents average against J.P. France with 2 outs and runners in scoring position: .148/.207/.296.
Batters leading off an inning against Ryan Pressly are slashing .163/.182/.302
Batters with 2 outs against Ryan Pressly are slashing .046/.160/.068
Thanks for reading!