Updates on AL West Race and Win Shares
With 23 games to go, the Astros are riding the struggle bus
Since we last spoke the Astros have split a pair of games, beating the Angels and getting axed by the Yankees.
The good news is that both the Rangers and Mariners lost last night, so Houston remains 3 games ahead of the Mariners and 4.5 games ahead of the Rangers.
The Mariners currently own the third AL Wild Card with the Rangers 1.5 games behind them.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
Expected Wins
The Astros are 5 games below their xWins at the All-Star Break.
The Should Be Standings
The Astros remain 2.4 games in back of the Rangers, as the Mariners slip a bit.
Projected Standings
On the other hand, if the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Houston will hang on in the AL West:
The Astros a three-game series with Seattle in late September at Daikin Park and six remaining games with the Rangers, including three this weekend.
Professional Projections
Fangraphs agrees, projecting the Astros to 88 wins over Seattle’s 86 and 83 for the Rangers.
The site gives Houston a 66.6% chance of winning the division and a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
The downward trend for Correa continues.
No official moves made by press time, but I believe Cesar Salazar may be optioned when Caratini is ready to return.
Another pretty good outing from De Los Santos.
Quality At-Bats
Correa slips behind Yordan.
Team average is 39.1.
Win Shares
Total adds to 72.
The “P” in parentheses means that is the Win Shares for position players pitching. Poor Cooper Hummel.
Rando Stats of the Day
The Astros are 7-1 when Jason Alexander starts.
Since August 15:
Offense: .215/.290/.341 with a .278 wOBA and 76 wRC+
Pitching: 4.27 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 4.03 xFIP.
Starting Pitching 4.07 ERA, Bullpen 4.82 ERA.
As always, thanks for reading!