We're Halfway There

and the Astros are livin' on a prayer

I hadn’t intended to post today, but given that I’m swamped on Friday, I thought I would throw up a quick one since we’re are exactly at the halfway point - 81 games.

Last week, I mentioned the need to go (at least) 8-5 in the following 13 games, and the Astros are off to a 3-2 start, meaning at the very least a 5-3 finish is needed.

Expected Wins

I’m projecting 75 wins for the Astros at the halfway point.

June wRC+

Several batters are riding the struggle bus, but most importantly, Christian Walker continues his slide.

Updated Projections

Halfway through the season means these projections are exactly 50% preseason projections and 50% 2026 results.

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

Total up the expected wins below, and you get 76 - exactly twice what their “pace” (38-43) is. I feel good about these projections as a result.

The difference between the projected number of 75 above and the 76 here is likely rounding.

Record by Starting Pitcher

On pace to get 18 wins from Arrighetti starts and 14 from Lambert starts.

Quality Starts

The starting pitching is killing any hopes of contending, as the last two days have shown.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through June 23.

Apologies for the shorter-than-typical post, but it’s been a hectic summer with more to come.

Thanks for reading!