6 Days in New York

Astros go 4-2 in the Big Apple, mountain gets steeper for foes

Aug 31, 2026

What a difference 6 days in New York has made for the Astros hopes in the AL West.

Don’t get it twisted, Houston has a long way to go over the next 25 games and if last year taught us anything, it’s that having a two game lead in late August doesn’t assure you of a postseason.

But - it’s better than the alternative.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of August 30):

Projected Remaining Record: 13-12 (Previous 14-14)

Projected Final Record: 82-80 (Previous 81-81)

Win Division: 64.6% (Previous 43.7%)

Wild Card: 3.2% (Previous 8.2%)

Make Playoffs: 67.9% (Previous 51.9%)

Expected Wins (as of August 30)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 137 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 12-13 finish for Houston, not the 13-12 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 25 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 5.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.