What are the Odds?

Astros finish pre-All-Star schedule with 3 in Arlington

With just three games before the All-Star Game, I wanted to share my content plans.

There are two posts that I have wanted to do for some time, but haven’t had the time that I hope to get to during the break: 1) An update on this story from October on Jose Altuve’s struggles with breaking balls, and 2) Comparing Yordan and the rest of the AL via Win Shares as the MVP discussion grows.

The day-to-day projections continue to interest my numbers-loving brain, but there are other angles I’d like to attack during the post-All-Star Game season, too.

These are the first two.

Expected Wins

Houston has been as high as 77 expected wins recently, but no hire and Wednesday’s depressing loss drops it back to 76.

That means I’m projecting a 30-37 finish and a 76-86 record.

Fangraphs is projecting 4 more wins, a 33-34 post-All-Star game record, and a 79-83 finish.

Fangraphs gives the Astros a 10.6% chance of winning the AL West, a 20.8% chance of getting a Wild Card, and a 31.4% chance of making the playoffs.

Seems optimistic to me, someone who is typically optimistic isn’t feeling that way at the moment.

July wRC+

We are about a third of the way through the month calendar-wise, but more like halfway through it game-wise due to the 4-day break (from games).

The team has a 100 wRC+ for June with a .236/.305/.410 slash and has scored 35 runs in 7 games (5.0 runs per game).

This is a power-laden team with 10 home runs in July (1.43 per game) and 126 on the season (1.33 per game), putting them on pace for 215 home runs.

I currently project the team to 189 home runs.

My number seems low, but one injury could change that.

Updated Projections

Each game, moving forward, will push it 0.6% closer to the actual 2026 results.

The team has an ERA of 5.61 in June, with starters at 9.00 and the bullpen at 2.53.

Media reports that a left-handed hitting outfielder is the main target for Dana Brown, but you could acquire 3 of those and still not win with the current rotation.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti is struggling and regressing hard after walking 6 on Wednesday.

Quality Starts

Perhaps help is coming, but I’ll die on this hill: You are not making the playoffs with 27.4% quality starts.

The 81% win percentage in quality starts is likely unsustainable, so you need as many as possible.

Game Scores

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.

So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

Lots of red on this chart.

Win Shares

Add all these together, and you get a net of 46, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan is running away with this, but dropped a bit from last time after a mediocre week.

MLB Expected Wins

The data below is through July 9.

Thanks for reading!