Will Jose Altuve Reach 3,000 Hits?

612 hits away, with four years left on his contract, potential land mines abound

This was intended to be a fun post while we wait to hear any news (Shane Baz?) from the Winter Meetings and before I update the rosters to see where things stand heading into 2026 for the AL West.

I won’t get too detailed into the math I used to get to the answer I came up with, because that’s probably pretty boring to most of you, and after all, this is just a not really educated guess.

The Facts

• Jose Altuve will be 36 years old on May 6, 2026

• Altuve has 2,388 hits, needing 612 more to reach 3,000

• Altuve is signed through the 2029 season - four more seasons

• Over his career, Altuve has averaged 1.21 hits per game played

• Over the last three seasons, Altuve has averaged 1.14 hits per game played

The Exercise

The most likely way Altuve doesn’t reach 3,000 during his current contract: Lost games from a lockout in 2027 or an injury such as 2023.

Either of those two things will likely derail Altuve’s chance at 3,000, or at least significantly delay the accomplishment.

If Altuve remains healthy and the lockout doesn’t happen (or is short-lived), it appears at first glance that Altuve could hit the 3,000 hit mark sometime in the latter stages of the 2029 season, allowing him to ride off into the sunset and Hall of Fame as his contract expires.

At 1.21 hits per game it would take 506 games, a number I project Altuve to reach in late July or early August of 2029.

But, we also know that Altuve is at a point in his career where he’s not likely to play as much and will almost certainly be taken out late in games for defensive purposes, perhaps losing at-bats over the course of a 162-game season.

Joe Espada’s recent comments also add to the intrigue. If you missed it, Espada said two relevant things: 1) Yordan Alvarez will predominantly DH in 2026 and 2) Altuve’s defensive position is to be determined.

Also, two projection systems on Fangraphs have Altuve at 637 (FGDC) and 589 (Steamer) plate appearances, respectively, down from the 654 of 2025.

That second one is a 10% decrease, which is significant and if this comes true, or is even close, it will be nearly impossible for Altuve to reach 3,000 by the end of 2029.

To summarize, the manager doesn’t know what position you’ll be playing, and the DH position will mostly be manned by Alvarez.

Nevertheless, I’ve developed a model that projects Altuve’s plate appearances, at-bats and hits over the next four seasons, including a slight decrease each season, which seems generous at this point.

The results were 156, 153, 150 and 147 hits over the next four seasons, a total of 606, which would leave Altuve with 2,994 hits at the end of 2029.

That’s the bad news.

The Good News

The good news is that models are always off, at least to some degree, and mine could be way off. As I said, this was for fun.

Altuve is also one of one and always (except in 2020) ends up with an actual average miles ahead of his expected average.

The Verdict

I started this hoping to determine a date certain that I’d go with, like “game 98 of 2029”, or maybe even a specific date, something we could track over the years.

The more math I did, the more unlikely it seemed and Espada’s comments added to that unlikeliness.

The math is simple: 4 years, 612 hits, or 153 per season, which is three fewer than the number of hits Altuve recorded in 2025.

To ask him to do that for four more years seems unlikely, and a lockout that results in missed games or a couple of 15-day IL trips could push the date into 2030 or make it unreachable altogether.

But, there is this: Altuve has spent his entire career proving everyone wrong and I find myself hoping he proves me wrong, too.

Thanks for reading.