Win the Series, but lose the War

Astros take two of three against Rangers, but get outscored

I know most of you don’t care that the Astros ended up getting outscored in a series they won two games to one, and in the short term, it matters not.

But over the long term, run prevention is an important thing and turning a potential 2-0 loss into an 8-0 loss tells you something about your club and it’s not good.

Updated Projections

We are now 29.6% of the way through the season, and the team has a 109 wRC+ (5th) and 5.43 ERA (30th).

The wRC+ has lagged since we last spoke (71, 27th in the league), while the ERA has improved slightly.

Record by Starting Pitcher

Arrighetti continues to be the leader and Burrows continues to struggle.

Quality Starts

Two quality starts last week is a slight improvement, but the Astros are on pace for 36 quality starts, just over half of the number they had last season.

Game Scores

Arrighetti overtakes Lambert.

Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in a format that is easier to understand.

So, I’ve taken the scores and converted them into letter grades, as you’d get in school.

This is a work in progress, not a final output, as you’re seeing me work through it in real time.

Win Shares (not fWAR)

Add all these together, and you get a net of 19, which is the number of wins the Astros currently have.

Yordan continues to pace the field, with Walker also playing well.

Both Correa and Altuve on the IL is depressing.

Astros Expected Wins

A 3-4 week for Houston, but outscored 33-16. Yikes.

AL West Expected Wins

Despite losing an expected win since this time last week, they are now projected for fourth, because the Angels have been worse.

MLB Expected Wins

Not sure if there’ll be another post this week or not, but if not, next Monday for sure.

Thanks for reading!