Winding Down

Astros take 3 of 4 against White Sox, lead Rangers by 2 games with 21 to play

Sep 04, 2026

After taking 4 of 6 in Gotham City last week, Houston took 3 of 4 against the first place White Sox and lead the Rangers by 2 games and the Mariners by 6, with 21 games to play.

First, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run (through games of September 3):

Projected Remaining Record: 11-10 (Previous 13-12)

Projected Final Record: 83-79 (Previous 82-80)

Win Division: 72.9% (Previous 64.6%)

Wild Card: 4.9% (Previous 3.2%)

Make Playoffs: 77.9% (Previous 67.9%)

Expected Wins (as of September 3)

First, the big picture.

This chart tells you about the entire season, but it doesn’t tell you a whole lot about recency, because it’s 141 data points all jammed together.

So, I created these two that start in August.

These two contain the same information, in a different format.

The AL West Race

So far, we’ve been looking at the Astros in a vacuum, without regard to any other team, but that’s not how this works.

Here is my traditional look at the AL West. What a division.

So, I’m projecting a 10-11 finish for Houston, not the 11-10 that Fangraphs projects.

Here is what the AL West looks like under my current projections:

A note - the win totals and GB are rounded.

Here’s a graphic I put together to tell you why the Astros playoff projection % is so high and just what teams have to accomplish to overcome Houston.

Remember the Mariners have an “easy” schedule ahead as do the Rangers.

What this really shows you is if the Astros play competent ball over the next 21 games, it will be difficult to overcome.

If the Astros play really well, say 14-7, the Rangers would have to win 17 of 21 and the Mariners 20 of 21.

Because of the tiebreakers the Rangers have to make up 3 games and the Mariners 6.

The Astros have the tiebreaker over the Rangers, the Rangers have the tiebreaker over the Mariners and the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Astros.