With Games Ticking Away, Astros Spinning Wheels
Rangers, take 2 of 3 as Astros move on to Toronto (Tuesday)
NOTE: Traveling this week. The publishing schedule and content will likely be altered.
The important 15-game stretch I mentioned last week has begun with a 1-2 weekend in Arlington, keeping the Rangers in the middle of the AL West and Wild Card races.
It’s on to Toronto as the Astros try and hold on over the next 18 games.
Let’s get to where we stand.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
Expected Wins
I’ve adjusted the timeline and scale on the first chart to reflect the ups and downs of the most recent past and to acknowledge that 95 wins is no longer a realistic goal.
Spinning wheels at 87 wins, despite an 11-0 win on Friday.
The Should Be Standings
As I mentioned last time, the Rangers could be dangerous down the stretch, but one wonders if they have enough firepower to make up the difference in the West (4 games out), but the Wild Card is a real possibility (1.5 out).
Projected Standings
Yet, if the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, Houston will hang on in the AL West:
Professional Projections
Fangraphs projects the Astros to 88 wins over Seattle’s 86 and 83 for the Rangers.
The site gives Houston a 63.8% chance of winning the division and a 89.4% chance of making the playoffs.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Record by Starting Pitcher
Rando Stats of the Day
The Astros average 6.81 runs when Jason Alexander starts and are 8-1.
Yordan Alvarez is slahing .423/.488/.538 in 41 plate appearances with RISP.
Jeremy Pena is slashing .318/.372/.496 in the leadoff spot with a 130 OPS+.
Opponents are hitting .134 off Steven Okert’s slider, which he throws 57.6% of the time. Overall, Okert is in the 90th percentile or higher in xwOBA/xERA (97), xBA (98), xSLG (91), HardHit% (93), K% (92) and Whiff% (94).
As always, thanks for reading!