You can't keep them all and that's a good thing
On Altuve, Bregman and Tucker
“Thank goodness.” That’s the text I got in response to telling my 17-year-old that Jose Altuve had agreed to an extension with the Astros.
I don’t know if he was worried Altuve would sign somewhere else, but the thought never entered my mind other than to realize how crushed he’d be to see one of his childhood baseball heroes in another uniform someday.
But now, there’s no question Altuve will be an Astro through 2029.
We’d been through it with the Astros before with George Springer and Carlos Correa, but Altuve was different.
I can’t explain it or quantify it, but you know what I mean.
If ever there was a “heart and soul” of a team, Altuve is it.
It needed to get done.
Not just for the Astros and not just for Altuve.
But, for all parties involved, including the fans.
The signing of Josh Hader and the extension of Altuve brought back to mind a thought I’ve had for a while now.
For a guy who “doesn’t spend money” Jim Crane is spending a lot of money.
Not Yankee-type money, that’s never going to happen and if that’s the bar you’ve set, you’re setting yourself up for repeated disappointment and frustration and you’re not living in reality.
Some of the deals haven’t worked out - Rafael Montero and Jose Abreu among them - but that’s hindsight for the most part, though admittedly Montero’s deal seemed a bit out of whack when signed.
The point is Crane spent when it became obvious Yordan was a budding superstar.
Crane spent when Cristian Javier was off the charts in 2022.
Crane spent when saw a need at first base.
Crane spent when he saw an opportunity to get the best reliever in the game.
Crane spent to ensure the face of his franchise was an Astro for life.
But I’d also argue some of the deals Crane didn’t make are among his best.
Not re-signing George Springer and Carlos Correa has played a part in the Astros remaining competitive, allowing the team to make other moves without being financially strapped more than they already are.
From where I sit he made the right call on both of those players.
Admittedly, the conclusion on Springer was at least somewhat rooted in hindsight, but I was all for letting Correa walk.
It might seem as if unlimited, uncapped spending is the answer and the Rangers spending a billion on their infield and winning the title is fuel to that fire.
It worked in the short term and a World Series title should not be taken lightly, but the long-term ramifications will likely be painful in Arlington.
Maybe even in the medium term, because the Astros, not the Rangers, have the better odds to win the AL West, AL and World Series in 2024.
That brings us to Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker.
This is Bregman’s final season under contract and according to Spotrac his cap hit is third among MLB third basemen and 18th in all of MLB.
Bregman’s compensation will be $30,000,000 for 2024.
Free agents of Bregman’s quality rarely take pay cuts.
Bregman will be 30 when this season begins and is repped by the Boras Corporation.
Someone will likely pay Bregman an exorbitant amount to play third base and I don’t think it will be the Astros.
This is the kind of deal Crane avoids and he’ll be accused of being cheap because of it.
This is the kind of deal Crane should avoid.
I realize that Dana Brown said the Astros will make Bregman an offer - but that’s a given.
What do we expect him to say?
I’d be wary of anything longer than three seasons for Bregman, which he won’t. and shouldn’t, accept.
Tucker still has two more seasons under team control and while he’s arguably underpaid (9th among RFs) at $12,000,000 per year, he is the highest paid arbitration eligible right fielder in the game.
A lot can happen over two seasons, but unless an extension is agreed upon Tucker will hit free agency at 29.
Tucker should be the priority and Bregman will become a free agent after 2024, as his agent has indicated.
Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement and Free Agency, most organizations have to make choices and these are the choices the Astros are faced with.
You’re constantly threading the needle, figuring out who to keep, and who to let hit free agency.
On the other hand, the Yankees buy buy buy mentality has been a disaster for the last couple of decades.
Despite fans believing budgets are unlimited and because Crane is worth “$1.6 billion” he should be able to pay anyone and everyone whatever they want, that’s simply not the case.
Aside from a lack of understanding of basic finance or the definition of “net worth”, it’s not a prudent prudent way to run a team.
In the era of guaranteed contracts in the 100s of millions whether players produce on the field or not, the decisions Crane makes today will have ramifications for decades to come.
Fans think in terms of this game, today, this season.
An owner should think in terms of years and decades and plan accordingly.
I’d argue Crane is doing just that.
Thanks for reading!