2026 Projections: Carlos Correa and Yainer Diaz

Correa and the Conundrum

Mar 12, 2026

Carlos Correa

There are times when a player’s contributions to a team can’t solely be measured in numbers, and I believe that’s the case with Carlos Correa’s presence on the Astros.

Whether he’s an official captain or not, Correa provides leadership and guidance to younger players that can’t be measured on any chart I can produce.

That said, gone are the halcyon days of 140 wRC+ or 6.3 fWAR, but Correa can still contribute mightily to the 2026 Astros.

The fWAR projection assumes Correa plays third base at a similar level as 2025.

Most of the well-known projection systems have Correa significantly higher, with several in the 110-116 wRC+ range and 3.0 or higher fWAR.

We last saw that level of production in 2024, and it was for a half season (as a shortstop), so I’m not going to project those levels for 2026.

This is Correa’s age-31 season, so there could still be a few productive seasons in there, assuming health.

Summary: Stronger glove work could add 0.5–1.0 fWAR, and as mentioned above, a healthy 31-year-old Correa could exceed these projections, but color me and my model skeptical.

Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz ended up hitting 20 home runs, but his wRC+ and fWAR imploded year over year, dropping from 116/3.0 in 2024 to 92/1.6 in 2025.

My model expects a bit of a resurgence, jumping up to 100 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR (2024-type).

Unlike most of the others profiled to date, Diaz has remained consistently healthy over 3 seasons.

After showing signs of being one of the better-hitting catchers in the league earlier in his career, as the years and innings march on, Yainer has settled into being a “good-hitting catcher” with very likely average output and a little extra pop from time to time.

Most professional projection systems are in the same range for both wRC+ and fWAR.

Summary: As he’s aged, Yainer has become a solid, not spectacular bat, while remaining mediocre defensively. At 27, his chase rate, which has been in the 1st, 2nd, and 1st percentiles (not good), is unlikely to change markedly, limiting upside.