2026 Projections: Josh Hader, Cristian Javier and Bryan King

The Closer, the Unknown and the King

Mar 23, 2026

As the season closes in, we continue our pitcher projections and explain the plan moving forward.

The Plan

With the Astros opening on Thursday, the plan is to finish up the projections tomorrow (Tuesday), with Lance McCullers, Jr., Steven Okert, and Bennett Sousa.

There will not be projections for Tatsuya Imai or Ryan Weiss because they have no MLB experience, though others have made projections for both players here and here.

There may be a few others that make the roster as a surprise, but their impact will likely be minimal; I’ll figure out how to handle them, if at all, when that time comes.

I’ll post an AL West projection on Wednesday and a composite of player projections on Thursday.

The current plan is to update the projections on the opening day of each series, but there will be exceptions.

Josh Hader

Josh Hader starts the season on the IL, and it’s a mystery as to whether it’ll be two weeks, a month, or longer until he sees live action in an MLB game.

Knowing this, I made a semi-educated guess, and this projection reflects the time he is likely to miss.

It turns out very close to 2025, not just in traditional stats, but also in fWAR and FIP.

Summary: Hader is still one of the game’s best closers when healthy, and the high strikeout rate and closer role give Hader solid value despite only 49 IP. Hopefully, we see Hader before April is out because the downstream effects on the Astros bullpen become more of an issue each game he misses.

Cristian Javier

There’s been good and bad for Javier this spring, covering 10.2 innings. 8.4 K per 9 and 5.1 BB per 9, wrapped around a 1.69 ERA and 4.97 FIP.

There are concerns about the velo on his four-seam fastball, which begins outings mediocre and then slows noticeably.

Keep in mind that he faced roughly Double-A-level competition, per Baseball-Reference.

Overall, I would say it’s promising, but the sample is tiny, and the walks are a concern.

My projection is for slightly more production than last season, with regression in FIP to pre-injury levels.

Summary: Javier is a difficult one to project, as FIP has rarely matched production, even in good years, giving you the sense that regression was always coming.

The fastball velo is something to keep an eye on.

This is a reasonable partial-season value for a #4–#5 starter (league-average-ish FIP, ~5 IP/start average). Full-season pace would be ~2.5–3.0 fWAR if sustained over ~150–180 IP, but that’s a pipe dream with Javier’s injury history.

Bryan King

A personal favorite in this house that we have affectionately nicknamed “Burger King”, he’s given the Astros a really good season and a half.

The appearances are surprisingly low, but part of that is that his usage is likely to be more conservative in the setup role.

The fWAR includes a bump for his likely early-season set-up role while Hader is on the mend, and interestingly enough, the FIP stays exactly the same.

Summary: King projects another very good reliever season: elite K rate, low ERA/FIP, moderate volume. His numbers are comparable to those of top-30 relievers in recent years. Depending on when Hader returns and King moves back to a 7th inning role, the fWAR could project closer to 0.9.