2026 Projections: Lance McCullers, Jr., Steven Okert and Bennett Sousa

Wrapping up 2026 Projections with Lance, Okert and Bennett Sousa

Mar 24, 2026

Our final three projections prior to projecting the AL West (Wednesday) and posting composite projections on Opening Day (Thursday).

Lance McCullers, Jr.

If the numbers below look familiar, it’s because they are Lance’s from last season, and I’m starting his 2026 the same way (similar to how I would project a rookie), since the only relevant experience McCullers, Jr. has is last season.

There are projection systems that project him to throw 113 or 120 innings. That could happen, but I’m not going to project that.

I’ll start conservative and build on it as the season matures.

For what it’s worth, Lance is in the final year of his contract, and I imagine his last year with the Astros.

He has been named the 5th starter to begin the season.

Summary: Priors are pretty useless in Lance’s case because, simply put, he isn’t remotely the same pitcher he was pre-injury. That leaves me grasping at what this season will look like. As mentioned, some projection systems are more bullish than I am. I’ll have to see it first.

Steven Okert

With Hader and Sousa out to start the season, Okert will see an increase in responsibility and leverage.

Okert was exceptionally good last season in an under-the-radar kind of way, and the Astros are going to need that and more this season.

While I don’t think 2025 was a mirage, some regression is likely due for Okert, but that doesn’t mean he won’t contribute positively to an Astros bullpen full of questions.

Summary: Okert profiles as a solid mid-tier reliever contribution for 58 IP: better-than-replacement value from strong strikeouts and control, offset by moderate HR allowance and lower leverage than a closer.

Expect some regression in FIP, with increased leverage (0.89 last season).

Bennett Sousa

The “Astros Killer,” otherwise known as an oblique injury, will sideline Sousa to start the season, and it sounds like it may be a while before he gets back.

This is a big blow to the Astros bullpen as the left-handed Sousa was nails out of the pen last season, posting a 2.84 ERA and 2.72 FIP across 51 innings.

The projections below reflect a semi-educated guess on the length of Sousa’s absence.

Some minor regression is expected in fWAR, ERA and FIP.

Summary: Sousa provides strong value for just 34 IP: elite peripherals drive solid above-replacement production, with leverage boosting Sousa’s profile despite limited volume. Comparable to a good setup man or part-time closer.