Astros bench weaker in 2023
With Aledmys Diaz in Oakland, the Astros have options, but they're not as pretty as they once were.
While others may believe differently, I don’t think there’s any question the Astros are a little weaker than they were last year.
I don’t expect 106 wins, but to be fair I didn’t expect that last year either.
With Justin Verlander a Met and Lance McCullers, Jr. out, it’s difficult to say they’re better, at least as of March 15.
No matter how good Hunter Brown is, he isn’t going to completely replace Verlander’s 6.1 WAR and while the Astros got only 47.2 regular season innings out of McCullers, Jr. in 2022, he’s still a quality, veteran lefty when healthy.
Yordan’s got a sore hand and Michael Brantley is questionable.
On the flip side, there should be more production from first base.
Less talked about is the loss of Aledmys Diaz and who might replace him.
Diaz was average in his time with the Astros, I mean the man literally had an OPS+ of 100 in 262 games and 952 plate appearances as an Astro.
Diaz’s value came in his versatility and while he had torrid stretches, he was average overall.
He played 1st, 2nd, 3rd, short, left and DH with Houston. And that’s not counting the 3 innings in right field.
Diaz could play anywhere except catcher and center and my guess is he could play those two if needed.
He was effectively two bench players rolled into one, a rare player that could play all the infield positions and left field at a Major League level while providing incredible flexibility for Dusty Baker.
A week ago it looked like the plan was to replace Diaz with Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley.
I like Hensley and think he has some promise. I “think” because he hasn’t done it before and while he had a solid 34 plate appearances (and post season) along with a good spring, it’s TBD on whether Hensley can be the guy around the infield for long stretches when injuries hit.
I projected good numbers for Hensley in 2023, but obviously a glaring lack of experience at the MLB level means a high variance in outcomes is possible.
He could hit .340 or .140 and I wouldn’t be surprised at either.
I’m less bullish on Dubon, as I expressed when writing his projections. Perhaps I was too harsh, after all, Verlander wouldn’t want a bum in center when he was pitching just for grins, but a negative WAR means theoretically any random player could come up and do better at the plate and his OPS+ suggests you don’t even have to be replacement level to be better.
Dubon’s outfield defense is overrated in my opinion, his limited time playing second and short last season left a lot to be desired and he simply didn’t hit last season with the Astros (.208/.254/,298, 56 OPS+).
I like the second option better, but apparently this one is only a thing if Michael Brantley is not ready for opening day.
"If he’s not back, we have McCormick and Meyers, and it would be McCormick, Meyers and, of course, Tucker. You’re looking at some competition after that with Dirden, who’s been swinging the bat pretty well in camp."
Dirden would be Justin Dirden, who’s impressed this spring in his 18 plate appearances and played all three outfield positions in the minors.
Dirden could be similar to Chas in McCormick’s rookie season. Or he could flop. Much like Hensley, either wouldn’t surprise me.
That said, it may be worth the gamble, because we saw 200 at bats of less than 0 (WAR) from Dubon.
It feels like the Astros went cheap here, though I’m not suggesting they should have paid Diaz (or anyone) the $7.5 million per that the A’s paid and that probably wouldn’t have mattered anyway as Diaz will get to play regularly in Oakland.
Diaz had a 0.6 WAR, so perhaps this is much ado about nothing (or at least very little), Hensley could theoretically surpass that number by himself.
On the flip side, if you needed a third baseman for say, three weeks, for example, that fit Diaz perfectly.
We shall see if Hensley can handle similar situations.
I like to pride myself on a holistic view of baseball. I love the numbers, but they’re not everything.
So while Diaz WAR isn’t daunting to replace numerically, his ability to play multiple positions, both on the infield and in the outfield, for long stretches was priceless.
Whatever option the Astros go with, with Diaz in Oakland it sure feels like the bench won’t be as strong as 2022.
Nice bench snapshot, Marty.....I find it kinda weird how the 'Stros seemed to view the bench as an afterthought in the offseason. I agree about not paying Diaz free agent $, but it really feels like an odd laissez-faire attitude to just "play it as it lays" with the young-uns coming up (Dirden, Hensley), while hoping Dubon plays over his head.
That said, with a team like the 'Stros, perhaps a segment can be a tad overlooked (from a financial standpoint), with the $$ outlay already put into the heart of the rotation and starting lineup pieces. I was tempted to poll-vote more optimistically with a heart-driven "stronger," but I just couldn't pull the trigger...so, "weaker" it'll stay with all my optimism still intact!
If Yordan and/or Brantley need extended fill-ins, it's times like those that stars emerge, and that's where a Dirden or a Hensley could put their name on the map as a solid ML contributor.