Crawford Street Journal

Crawford Street Journal

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
Astros Now Project to Top of AL West
User's avatar
Discover more from Crawford Street Journal
Data-driven Astros analysis
Already have an account? Sign in

Astros Now Project to Top of AL West

Surge coincides with Mariners struggles

Marty Coleman
Jul 04, 2024
2

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
Astros Now Project to Top of AL West
1
Share

Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:

Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings


For the First Time This Season

For the first time in 2024, Crawford Street Journal has the Astros in first place in the American League West based on our proprietary expected wins formula.

An important caveat: Formula is not predictive or forward-looking.

Since June 19 the Astros are 11-2 and the Mariners 3-10.

Projected Standings and Win Totals

The latest projected standings:

As it stands this morning, the playoff teams would be:

American League

Division Winners: Orioles, Guardians, Astros

Wild Cards: Yankees, Royals, Twins

National League

Division Winners: Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers

Wild Cards: Braves, Padres, Mets

Expected Win Totals for Houston after games of 7.3.24

First: Crawford Street Journal’s formula that includes run differential and runs scored and allowed weighted.

Next, a comparison.

The Pythagorean Theorem is based only on runs scored and allowed.

To meet these numbers:

Pythag: 45-31 .592

AP: 42-34 .553

FanGraphs: 41-35 .539

Win%: 38-38 .500

Loading...

Luck Rankings

This indicates the part of the team’s winning percentage attributed to “luck”.

Positive numbers indicate “good” luck, negative numbers indicate “bad” luck.

In general, teams should be expected to regress to 0 (neutral).

This means teams like the Rays and Cardinals are likely to experience negative regression and teams like the Reds and Rangers are due for positive regression.

Astros Projections is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Power Rankings

Astros move up to 11th in the Power Rankings.

Thank you for reading.

Leave a comment

Share

Marty Coleman's avatar
RJ Ochoa's avatar
2 Likes∙
1 Restack
2

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
Astros Now Project to Top of AL West
1
Share

Discussion about this post

User's avatar
The Future: Jacob Melton
The most anticipated prospect of the 2025 cycle
Nov 14, 2024 • 
Marty Coleman
3

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
The Future: Jacob Melton
2
2025 Projection: Framber Valdez
With JV in Arizona, can the volatile Framber Valdez lead the staff?
Feb 25 • 
Marty Coleman
4

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
2025 Projection: Framber Valdez
Final Roster Thoughts and AL West Prediction
The roster is complete, the stage is set and the season is here
Mar 26 • 
Marty Coleman
4

Share this post

Crawford Street Journal
Crawford Street Journal
Final Roster Thoughts and AL West Prediction
2

Ready for more?

© 2025 Marty Coleman
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Create your profile

User's avatar

Only paid subscribers can comment on this post

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in

Check your email

For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.

Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.