Astros Now Project to Top of AL West

Surge coincides with Mariners struggles

Jul 04, 2024

Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:

Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings

For the First Time This Season

For the first time in 2024, Crawford Street Journal has the Astros in first place in the American League West based on our proprietary expected wins formula.

An important caveat: Formula is not predictive or forward-looking.

Since June 19 the Astros are 11-2 and the Mariners 3-10.

Projected Standings and Win Totals

The latest projected standings:

As it stands this morning, the playoff teams would be:

American League

Division Winners: Orioles, Guardians, Astros

Wild Cards: Yankees, Royals, Twins

National League

Division Winners: Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers

Wild Cards: Braves, Padres, Mets

Expected Win Totals for Houston after games of 7.3.24

First: Crawford Street Journal’s formula that includes run differential and runs scored and allowed weighted.

Next, a comparison.

The Pythagorean Theorem is based only on runs scored and allowed.

To meet these numbers:

Pythag: 45-31 .592

AP: 42-34 .553

FanGraphs: 41-35 .539

Win%: 38-38 .500

Luck Rankings

This indicates the part of the team’s winning percentage attributed to “luck”.

Positive numbers indicate “good” luck, negative numbers indicate “bad” luck.

In general, teams should be expected to regress to 0 (neutral).

This means teams like the Rays and Cardinals are likely to experience negative regression and teams like the Reds and Rangers are due for positive regression.