Astros Rankings Based on Steamer Projections
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Earlier this week I attempted to quantify the Astros issues in the outfield using Steamer Projections for 2025.
Maybe that’s a weird thing to do for someone who seemingly questions these projections whenever I get an opportunity including the note below, but my projections don’t estimate fWAR and it’s one of the more widely used projection systems, so I figured “Why not? Maybe I can learn something.”
In the middle of that exercise I had a thought and that led to this post, where I go position by position to see where the Astros stand in both the American League and MLB with their projected starting lineup, rotation and bullpen.
I’ll add comments under each.
Editors Note: These rankings are a snapshot in time. They do change as players switch leagues and for other reasons that I’m not privy to. For example, earlier this week Framber was 8th in MLB and 4th in the AL. What happened between Tuesday and Thursday a.m. to drop him this much I don’t know, but it makes me trust these less than I want to.
Position Players
*A solid infield that got better overall this offseason.
*I’ll be interested to see if the infield is better than the -12 OAA and 76 OBB from last season on defense as I suspect it will be.
*A tad surprised at Pena ranking 23rd in MLB and 10th in AL at shortstop, but it’s a very deep position and I’ve detailed Pena’s regression, especially in the field.
*Left field is an obvious issue, as is the outfield as a whole and this is why I thought a graph like this would be a great visual of just how dire the situation is: Taylor Trammel is the 32nd-ranked leftfielder in the American League. Not in MLB, but in the 15-team American League.
*Center and right field are nothing to brag about either.
*I didn’t include DHs, but Yordan would be 2nd in the AL (Judge) and 3rd in MLB (Judge, Ohtani).
Rotation
*Framber 16th in MLB and 7th in the AL seems about right.
*Hunter Brown has the potential to be much better than 29 overall, but as it stands, the Astros are projected to have two of the top 14 starting pitchers in the American League.
*Fangraphs has finally adjusted the projected rotation to make Wesneski the 5th starter.
*Ronel Blanco seems a bit low and Luis Garcia too high.
*They project Blanco to a 9-10 record with a 4.35 ERA. While I understand and agree he is a regression candidate, that seems a bit much.
*I expect nothing from McCullers, Jr. until he actually gets on a MLB mound in an actual game.
Bullpen
*Difficult to see on graph, but Hader is 7th in MLB and Abreu 13th.
*Pressly seems a bit low and conversely, they seem very bullish on Whitley.
*I can quibble with most of the guys on the back end and I haven’t compared these to other bullpen rankings, but those last four seem weak and that speaks to my concern about the bullpen in general.
*King and Ort intrigue me and I’ll be interested to see where they end up at the end of the season.
*fWAR does not appreciate relievers much in general or Tayler Scott specifically. Like most Astro relievers he walked too many and his xERA was 1.23 points higher than actual, but fWAR is based on production and Scott produced a 2.23 ERA over 62 appearances and 68.2 innings.
As always, thanks for reading.