Chapter 5: How The West was Won
The door is open for a Bregman return, but the bullpen has been decimated
While the volume of transactions are small, the implications are larger since we shared Chapter 4 of How The West Was Won on January 16 and I wasn’t expecting another update this soon, but the thing that happened was fairly big.
As in Ryan Pressly to the Cubs for salary relief and a (promising) minor leaguer.
The Big Picture
Using fangraphs.com roster resource and the players’ 2024 fWAR, here’s a color-coded, at a glance, best to worst for each segment of each team’s CURRENT roster as of 01.27.24 a.m.
Big picture: The loss of Pressly and the “addition” of Rafael Montero means the Astros now project to the least fWAR of any bullpen in the American League West (based on 2024 fWAR) to go along with a similarly rated outfield in the current configuration of Meyers, McCormick and Trammell.
The Details
The Pressly trade has been the only major movement since our last update, but it’s a major one as far as the AL West goes, with the Mariners taking the lead in fWAR.
Certainly, the Astros aren’t done and if they happen to resign Bregman that will change the math, but this is the current status.
I had already voiced concerns about the bullpen with Pressly, so a bullpen without Pressly and with Montero is worrisome.
What’s Changed for Each Team
What’s changed for each team since 1.16.25:
Astros
*Traded Ryan Pressly to the Cubs.
Mariners
*No major moves.
Rangers
*No major moves.
Athletics
*Signed RP Jose Leclerc to one year contract (2025),
Angels
*Signed Tim Anderson and J.D. Davis to Minor League contracts for 2025.
Coming Next Week: 2025 Player Projections
The Estimated Wins
So, what does it all mean?
For the newly arrived reader, I’m not projecting 60 wins for the Rangers or 48 for the Angels, though both would be perfectly fine with me.
This should be viewed more as “relative strength” or “order of finish” more than an exact number of wins.
How do we get there? Using the player’s 2024 fWAR and each team’s 2024 average fWAR per win we come up with estimated wins as things stand today.
Each team’s 2024 fWAR per win:
Astros: .46
Mariners: .50
Athletics: .48
Rangers: .54
Angels: .53
That gives us estimated wins based on the current projected roster.
The trade and corresponding promotion of Montero to the bullpen reduces the Astros expected wins by 3.7.
The AL West: Is It Still The Astros or…?
It’s still Astros and Mariners, though there has been plenty of noise about the Rangers this offseason.
I’d planned to write about that today (Rangers hype), but the Pressly news takes precedence.
Last November I never imagined a 2025 Astros team without Tucker, Pressly and Bregman, but here we are.
At least for now.
As always, thanks for reading.
Further Reading:
