Decisions, Decisions: Alex Bregman

A face of the franchise becomes a free agent (maybe)

Once the World Series concludes the Houston Astros have a 5-day window in which they have exclusive rights to negotiate a deal with pending free agent Alex Bregman.

I don’t presume to know all, or even most, of the details that will go into the decision and offer, assuming one is made, to keep Bregman in Houston.

I better grasp what Bregman has done in Houston, trends and comps for third basemen in 2024/2025.

Bregman has been an Astros stalwart since reaching the Major Leagues in 2016 and has been a steadying presence in the field, at the plate and in the clubhouse.

He will be 31 in March and while it’s difficult to see him wearing another uniform, it’s certainly possible.

The Numbers

Thirty is generally the magic number for athletes, where the trends start heading south and Bregman is no different.

• Bregman’s BB% in 2024 was only in the 32nd percentile when in the previous two seasons it was in the 89th and 94th percentile, respectively.

• His OPS, OPS+ and wRC+ were down and have trended down over the last three seasons.

• Bregman wasn’t good with RISP in 2024 after being outstanding in the two previous seasons and his RBI numbers suffered because of that.

• He chased more often in 2024, regressing to his rookie-year level.

• It’s not a myth, Bregman pops up a lot, 11% per Baseball Savant, when the league average is 7.1%.

• On defense, his Outs Above Average were much improved over 2023, but still below 2022 levels and there’s a slight dip in arm strength, which ranked in the 26th percentile.

• His bWAR dropped to 4.1 in 2024 after reaching 4.9 in 2023 and 4.6 in 2022, but are nowhere near his career highs of 7.9 in 2018 and 8.9 in 2019.

  

I haven’t plugged the 2024 numbers into my model to come up with 2025 projections yet, but there’s not much debate about what Bregman will likely give you in the field and at the plate: .260-.265, with 20-25 home runs, 80-90 RBI and he’ll play an excellent third base.

But the issue is the numbers show a general decline, which is not likely to reverse itself after age 30, especially beyond 2025.

Flawed Team Outplayed by Tigers

Beyond The Numbers is Incalculable

I’m a numbers guy. I believe in numbers and believe numbers are important in analyzing baseball.

That said, I’m not naive to variables other than numbers, such as the importance of the clubhouse and leadership.

Beyond the numbers, the loss of Bregman would likely be devastating to the Astros, as Jose Altuve has already made his feelings known and placed pressure on Jim Crane, Dana Brown and the front office.

It wouldn’t be the first (or second) time the Astros lost a homegrown star to free agency, but it somehow feels different with Bregman, especially with Altuve’s voice.

Or does it? There seemed to be a fair amount of angst among Astros fans when George Springer left, though that seemed like more of a foregone conclusion than Bregman.

Options If Bregman Signs Elsewhere

It feels like Bregman is headed for at least a test of the free agent market and that creates huge uncertainty in Houston, especially if a bidding war ensues.

If Bregman isn’t resigned there’ll be a giant hole on the left side of the infield and in the top of the order that will need to be filled, either by free agency or in-house.

In-house candidates would include Mauricio Dubon (14 MLB starts at 3rd), Zach Dezenzo (119 MiLB starts at 3rd) and Shay Whitcomb (95 MiLB starts at 3rd).

Potential free agents include Justin Turner (may retire), Eugenio Suárez (club option), Gio Urshela, J.D. Davis, and Yoán Moncada (club option).

None of those are as appealing as Bregman.

What Would An Offer to Bregman Look Like?

The most recent bar has been set by the Giants signing Matt Chapman to a 6 year, $151,000,000 deal.

According to Spotrac.com, Bregman is already the third highest-paid third baseman by cap total in MLB behind Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arrenado.

Chapman, who will be 32 in April, is comparable to Bregman and had a 125 OPS+ in 2024 and sits at 118 for his career.

Similar age, similar careers and I could see Bregman demanding a bit more based on being a year younger and with a better pedigree.

That said, Baseball-Savant gives Chapman an 85th percentile for Batting Run Value, 92nd for Baserunning Value and 88 for Fielding Run Value.

The same categories for Bregman are 47th percentile, 21st percentile and 81st percentile.

Conclusion: Sign Alex Bregman To Compete in 2025

Though there are serious questions about what a 35-37-year-old Bregman would look like on the back end of a six-year deal, the Astros are at a crossroads with Bregman being the first of many decisions that will need to be made and this decision will be a window into the thinking of the front office.

I’ve argued that the championship window closed when the Tigers won game two.

Maybe so, maybe not.

But if the Astros don’t sign Alex Bregman the front office will be signaling it’s time to look beyond 2025.