Decisions, Decisions: Justin Verlander

First-ballot Hall of Famer Justin Verlander has likely reached the end in Houston

Five hundred and twenty-six starts into his career, 41-year-old Justin Verlander wants to continue to pitch and believes he has more to offer a Major League team.

“I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said following the Astros’ season-ending 5-2 loss to the Tigers in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.

Verlander finished the 2024 season with a career record of 262-147 (.641) with a 3.30 ERA, 3,416 strikeouts, 26 complete games, 9 shutouts and 3,415.2 innings pitched.

In his two stints in Houston, Verlander is a remarkable 73-28 (.723) with a 2.71 ERA in 130 starts and two World Championships.

First ballot, no doubt.

The Numbers

This is one where you don’t need a lot of numbers to understand the decision. Your eyes, like mine, told you Verlander declined precipitously, not only from 2022, but from the first half of 2024 to the second half of 2024.

But there are still some relevant numbers to share.

• The velo on Verlander’s 4-seam fastball, which he throws about 50% of the time, is down 1.5 MPH since 2022 and finished 2024 in the 40th percentile.

  

• The batting average against Verlander’s 4-seamer is up over 100 points since 2022 and xBA, SLG, xSLG, wOBA and xwOBA are all up significantly against the pitch.

  

• Verlander started the season late due to injury, but he wasn’t bad in his first 10 starts, compiling a 3.95 ERA over 57 innings, including 5 quality starts.

• Verlander was a different pitcher after returning from the IL in late August, recording an 8.10 ERA in 7 starts covering 33.1 innings, with only 1 quality start, that coming in his final of the season.

Which begs the question of which pitcher would you get in 2025, the first-half Verlander or the second-half Verlander?

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Beyond The Numbers

I’ve argued that the Astros don’t have an ace, but rather a lot of good starting pitchers.

Many consider Framber the ace and while he may be the best starting pitcher, his temperament and tendency to blow up, along with his performance in recent postseasons make me hesitant to bestow that title upon him.

Verlander was once that ace, but is now at a stage of his career where that’s not a realistic thought.

Yet, he still added stability and a presence to the rotation, though that faded this fall and dread set in when it was his turn in the rotation for the last few starts.

Options If Verlander Doesn’t Return

Despite a plethora of injuries, the Astros are in a decent position if Verlander doesn’t return with Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia (assuming health) and Spencer Arrighetti, along and Cristian Javier and José Urquidy set to return from injuries at some point, perhaps July.

I’ll believe Lance McCullers, Jr. when I see it.

What Would An Offer to Verlander Look Like?

Spotrac.com estimated a Market Value for Verlander at $13,885,100, though it’s unclear if anyone would offer Verlander that or if it would be acceptable to JV.

Conclusion: Allocate $14,000,000 Somewhere Else

First-half Verlander would be acceptable at $14,000,000, but second-half Verlander isn’t and it’s difficult to know which one you would get in 2025 from a then 42-year-old pitcher with nearly 3,500 innings on his arm.

In addition, the Astros proved they can win without Verlander in the rotation as they did during his 2 and a half months (also without Tucker during this stretch) on the Injured List.

Starting pitching, at least in the regular season, wasn’t the Astros most glaring issue and this is money that can be spent addressing more pressing areas of need.