Everyone Can't Be Better
Simple math makes it unlikely three AL West teams will improve by 10+ Wins
MLB.com posted an article where seven writers were asked to choose a team to improve by 10+ wins in 2025.
We asked seven MLB.com writers to each pick out a club they see as a strong candidate to improve its 2024 record by at least 10 wins.
Three of the seven chose different AL West teams, which sounds strange at first, but not really because three different writers chose one team each, apparently independently.
I did something different. I focused on the three AL West teams on the list and considered the interplay between the teams that play each other 13 times a season for 52 games a year and came to a different conclusion.
Meaning not only is it unlikely three teams in the same division will improve by 10+ games, I don’t think any of them do, as they are currently manned.
For background, I’ve been following these teams all off-season through the “How The West Was Won series, so I have an opinion on all three.
You’ll have to trust me on this one, but I added the current Vegas win totals for these three teams AFTER I wrote the copy.
Texas Rangers
Lots of offseason love for Texas and not just in this article.
As many things went right for Texas in 2023 the equal amount went wrong in 2024.
2023 was the season the Rangers won the World Series, but not the AL West. It took career years from several players, a once-in-a-generation rookie performance down the stretch and some luck.
Regression was bound to happen in 2024, though I was surprised at the amount, perhaps due to the injuries discussed.
But the Astros had more than their share of injuries last season and still won 88 games and the division.
I would argue that the Rangers’ strength is their bench and bullpen, though they need a closer, and the rotation is a bigger question than many want to admit.
The first two starters (Eovaldi and deGrom) are good, but 35 and 36.6 years old, respectively, and no one is scared of Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle or Cody Bradford, though Bradford has potential.
A lot of things have to go right, similar to 2023, for this lineup to be fearsome again and it’s difficult to believe lightning will hit twice in three seasons.
Verdict
The Rangers will win more than 78 games, but won’t improve by 10+ wins. Remember, this team won only 90 in their World Series winning season and an improvement of 10 would put them at 88.
If deGrom stays healthy, sure, there’s a shot, but he hasn’t started more than 15 games since 2019.
Texas went 16-10 against the A’s and Angels last season and that will be more difficult to accomplish in 2025 if those teams are improved.
Need: 88
My guess: 82-85
Vegas says: 85.5
Athletics
I’m on the A’s bandwagon and think they are better than most believe and will be improved.
The top of the lineup is solid, the bullpen is best in the AL West and the rotation has added some pieces.
On the flip side, the lineup as a whole is near the bottom of the division, as is the bench, and the rotation is below even the Rangers.
Verdict
Improvement, but not 10+ win improvement without additions, either in the rotation, lineup or both.
It shouldn’t be ignored that the A’s improved by 19 games last season, so this would be the second consecutive season with an improvement of 10+ wins for the team, which feels less likely.
The wild card is playing in Sacramento for both the A’s and opponents. Oakland was within 3 wins of .500 at home last season (38-43) and it’ll be fascinating to see if that translates to their new home, making this the most volatile pick of the three.
Need: 79
My guess: 75-77
Vegas says: 71.5
Los Angeles Angels
This one makes the most sense to hit 10+ because 73 wins isn’t that high of a bar and a healthy Mike Trout would certainly help.
For the Angels, just getting a healthy season out of Mike Trout could be enough to get them close to a 10-win improvement.
The thought process is mostly a healthy Trout, but therein lies the problem.
Getting a full season from Trout is obviously a big ask after he was limited to just 29 games last season and 82 games in 2023. He's played just 266 games over the past four seasons -- an average of 67 per year.
Even with Trout the Angels have a poor lineup overall, a middling rotation despite the addition of Yusei Kikuchi and a poor bullpen.
Still, they have the easiest path to the largest improvement by starting at the lowest point.
Verdict
If I believe the Rangers and A’s are going to improve, it’s difficult for me to think the Angels are going to add 10+ wins to their total.
If healthy, Trout will likely add a few wins as will Kikuchi if he pitches like he did with Houston. If.
Those are two big questions, not givens, and the more likely scenario is one or the other happens, but not both.
This team had the worst record in the division against AL West opponents in 2024 and facing improved Rangers and A’s teams that they were 9-17 against last season means 10+ game improvement is not likely to happen.
Need: 73
My guess: 69-71
Vegas says: 71.5
Conclusion
All three teams improve their records, but none improve by 10+ games.
The offseason is not over and free agents can still be added and injuries will inevitably occur.
I’ll circle back closer to Opening Day and revisit this subject.
In any season gaining 10+ games is a big ask, much less three teams in a division with the Astros and a team with the rotation that Seattle has.
While there aren’t as many division games as there once were, it’s the same as last season and still a huge hunk of your schedule (52 games) and that matters.
As always, thanks for reading!
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