How The West Was Won - Early Projections
Using STEAMER and BAT X Projections to Predict the AL West
Back around Christmas, I updated my 2026 AL West projections using last year’s fWAR and placing players on their new teams.
At that time, I promised to update the projections using forward-looking numbers, and I’ve done that using two numbers for each: STEAMER projected fWAR and BAT X projections from fangraphs.com.
The irony is not lost on me. I started this site because I thought most projection systems sucked. Yet here I am using such numbers to project 2026 results. Life is funny. And by funny, I mean humbling.
Over the years of writing, I’ve probably dispelled more of my beliefs than I’ve confirmed.
But that’s a large part of the drive of this site: Don’t take the narrative as the truth without evidence. Analyze it. Debate it. Test it. Prove it.
Sometimes you’re wrong and when you are, admit it, adjust and move on, using the knowledge you’ve gained to be better moving forward.
This site is a great experiment. Some ideas work out great (xWins, Win Shares) and others suck (too many to name).
Let’s figure it out together.
We’ll start by looking at the four areas teams are broken down into on Fangraphs.com Roster Resource: Lineup, Bench, Rotation and Bullpen.
Reminder: First column is STEAMER fWAR projections, second is BAT X.
Lineup
Going into this, I was sure the Mariners would dominate this category, but in retrospect, a lot of that was likely recency bias, from what the Mariners did last September.
Looking forward, the Astros have better numbers in both projections, albeit by a tiny amount.
I should also note that Roster Resource has both Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes in the Astros lineup, which is dubious at best.
Result: Slight edge to Astros on a technicality.
Bench
If you know, you know, and me lamenting a trade of Mauricio Dubon has more than one of my Astros Fan Friends chuckling.
The Astros’ defense is definitely worse off for it, both in the infield and outfield.
Look, I was wrong about his defense, but right about his bat. Can I get half credit?
Anyway, the Rangers’ acquisition of Danny Jansen and shifting Kyle Higashioka to the bench is the reason they’re where they are.
Result: This area probably means the least of the four, but the Rangers lead the pack.
Rotation
My middle school teacher once asked us, “Who lies in Grant’s tomb?” Everyone knew the answer, but many felt it was too obvious and actually gave other names or “I’m not sure.”
This is the question on the test that everyone knows, even the stoner who cuts class 4 days a week. It’s the Mariners by a mile.
The fact that the Astros are 3rd or 4th, depending on your source, looms large for a team that has relied on pitching and defense the last few seasons.
This is worse than it looks for the Astros, as their numbers include 6 starters, when everyone else has 5. This will bite the Astros in the bullpen, where they will have one less arm.
NOTE: Imai had no BAT X projection at press time so we used the 1.8 fWAR STEAMER projection.
Result: Who lies in Grant’s tomb? The Mariners. By a mile.
Bullpen
There are wild variations in these numbers between sources, but the scale is relatively small.
Bullpen performances are volatile year to year, and apparently so are their projections between sources.
Result: This adds to the Mariners’ pitching dominance and the Astros fall a little further behind.
Adding It All Up
By adding all the fWARs together and applying a formula I’ve developed over the years, we can calculate the expected number of wins based on the projected fWAR for each team.
First glance: These seem low and gives me pause.
For reference, here are the 2026 fWAR numbers: Angels 13.3, Astros 38.8, Athletics 29.4, Mariners 42.5, Rangers 34.2.
Each of those is lower than the projections below, except for the Angels (both projections) and the Mariners BAT X projection.
Projecting Wins
Given the fact that nearly all of the preseason fWAR team totals are below last season’s actual totals, the numbers below should be considered relative, i.e. the Mariners will win the division and the Angels will finish last, rather than focusing on the exact number of wins below.
Looked at this way, the projected order is no shock: Mariners, Astros, Rangers, Athletics, Angels.
Angels
I keep hearing how this team is better, and while the Angels look to be improved, at least fWAR-wise, I think they struggle to duplicate 72 wins as they sit right now.
Astros
A surprisingly strong lineup that’ll never happen in the regular season (Walker AND Paredes in the same lineup) masks issues, so take it with a grain of salt. On the other hand, one of those (and another piece) could be bait for another pitcher, which could push the numbers forward.
Athletics
The reality is that the lineup that occasionally mashes is only projected 3rd in the AL West and then just barely that. The real issue is the pitching, which is dead last in rotation and bullpen (0.0 projected fWAR by Bat X) in the AL West. They’ll struggle to duplicate 76 wins without additions.
Rangers
It doesn’t get more mediocre than 81-81 and with their current roster the Rangers appear to be stuck right there or below. They’re not great or terrible at anything and appear to be headed nowhere fast.
What’s It Mean?
Over the last week, I’ve listened to a couple of “professional” podcasts that are bullish on the Astros, and they’re not Astros fans/employees/alumni/hangers on.
I’m surprised, as I think the Mariners should be the favorite and by a good bit (5 or so games) as we stand today.
There are so many unknowns in Houston, with Imai and the other pitchers the Astros have signed this offseason, while the Mariners’ rotation is rock solid.
I often tell my son that we notice the Astros’ flaws more because we see them for 162 games, while we may see the Mariners’ or Rangers’ flaws 10-15 times a year, so maybe it’s me remembering the Astros down the stretch last season.
That makes this a good exercise - the projections are not based on my feelings or hopes, but on data.
More To Come
I’ll update this as we get closer to the season to see if it the expected wins become more realistic as some of the issues (Walker/Paredes) clear.
As always, thanks for reading!