Updated American League West fWAR Totals
Astros' total ticks up, but competition expands lead
Houston General Manager Dana Brown improved his club last week with the addition of Mike Burrows to the Astros rotation, but the Mariners have more than kept pace since our last update.
Astros Updates
Since that time Fangraphs has changed a few things on the Astros Roster Resource:
Jake Meyers was moved to starting center fielder and Zach Cole went to the bench. While this shuffling of fWAR chairs netted no change overall, it did improve the Lineup fWAR and decrease the bench fWAR. Why they had Meyers as a bench player in the first place, I have no idea.
Burrows was slotted as SP4, Jason Alexander moved to the bullpen and Bennett Sousa was removed from the 26-man active roster.
This is a net positive for the Astros, but leaving Sousa and his 1.1 fWAR off the active roster negates almost all of the Burrows (1.3 2025 fWAR) increase.
Other AL West Moves
The Mariners signed Rob Refsnyder and that strengthened their bench, adding his 1.0 fWAR and dropping Samad Taylor from the 26-man.
The Athletics made an even bigger move, trading for Jeff McNeil. Fangraphs immediately penciled McNeil in at second base over Zach Gelof, a move that increased their lineup by over 2 fWAR.
Calculation
I’ve used the 2025 fWARs in this analysis, but intend to update it with the projected 2026 fWARs after the new year, when I begin looking forward instead of backwards.
I’m not sure if the projected numbers will be better for everyone, but they’ll certainly be closer to reality for guys like Yordan Alvarez, rookies and foreign players playing in the US for the first season.
Total fWAR
The Mariners maintain their commanding lead and look to be the best in the Division, at least on paper and the McNeil deal vaults the A’s past the Rangers and that much closer to the Astros.
Lineup fWAR
The Mariners also have a comfortable lead, lineup-wise, with the A’s closest behind, followed by the Astros, Rangers and Angels.
Significant bump with the addition of McNeil and the dropping of Gelof in A’s lineup.
Rotation fWAR
While the Mariners’ rotation is much celebrated, the Rangers are giving them a run for their money.
As mentioned, the Burrows signing was a positive one for Houston, but there is still much work to do.
Bullpen fWAR
With Sosa off the Astros’ 26 man on the Roster Resource, this calculus becomes close, but the Astros maintain a slight advantage.
Bench fWAR
The addition of Refsnyder to the Mariners bench pulls them even with the Astros.
Conclusion
The Mariners have to be considered the division favorite, on paper and there’s no denying the Astros have work to do in the lineup and with the rotation to compete in 2026.
But there is another team lurking and that’s the A’s.
Their rotation is the worst in the division and their bullpen is lacking, too, but this team is going to score bunches of runs.
As mentioned, when the New Year rolls around, I’ll go through a similar exercise, but use the Steamer 2026 projections instead of last year’s fWAR, as I believe that’ll give us more realistic numbers looking forward.
Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays.