How The West Was Won: Mariners Distancing Themselves from Astros
Seattle boldly goes where the Astros can't afford admission
It was just a couple of days ago that I accused the Astros of acting as if their roster needed only fine-tuning, rather than solid additions to compete with the Mariners, when another example has been thrust into our faces.
While the Astros were swapping out J.P. France (though he still resides on the FanGraphs Roster Resource) for projected 0.1 fWAR Kai-Wei Teng, the Mariners were dealing for a player the Astros had long-coveted, second baseman Brendan Donovan, and his projected 2.9 fWAR.
A couple more moves like this and I may have to call the race, at least the preseason projection portion, for the Mariners.
Projections aren’t everything, heck, I just wrote a billion words explaining why we can’t trust them, but they are SOMETHING.
It turns out fWAR doesn’t mean what the name implies, but it does mean production. Simply put, the Mariners are projected to outperform the Astros, and the gap is widening.
As it stands today, the Donovan trade leaves Seattle at a projected 46.7 fWAR and the Astros lagging at 42.4.
That 4.3 difference could represent anywhere from 9 to 10 games over the course of a season if it comes to fruition.
Of course, that’s a big if.
The entry of Donavan into the Mariners lineup also vaults the Mariners past the Astros in projected lineup fWAR.
Projections, of course, are fraught with faults, both known and unknown. Regression, inconsistency, injuries, illness, or some other issue could befall any of these players at any time, but all things considered, you’d rather be in the Mariners spot than the Astros.
There was a time when Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto was the butt of many jokes, and long-term, he may have given away the farm, quite literally.
But, short term? It appears he’s going for it this year and putting together a team that should be considered the favorite in the American League West.
Of course, there’s still time for a move from Houston, seeing as how the Astros continue to have more infielders than positions and as long as GM Dana Brown hedges with phrases like “right now” when discussing the roster, I’ll remain optimistic that something positive will happen before Opening Day.
As always, thanks for reading!
Regarding the topic of the article, your analysys about the Mariners' projections is really insightful. How much confidence do you place in fWAR models this early in the season?