(Just Don't Go) Winless in Seattle

Wobbling and injury-plagued Astros head to the Pacific Northwest

Jul 18, 2025

Coming off a disastrous 1-5 homestand, the Astros jump right back into the fire with a three-game set at the suddenly hot Mariners.

Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings

In the real world, the Astros have a 5-game lead over the Mariners, with Texas being 8.5 back and the Angels 9 back.

After reaching 97 expected wins after Los Angeles, the Astros took their lumps at Daikin Park and dropped 4 off the total.

For July the Astros are -1 expected win, which is shocking considering the sweep in LA and the subsequent six-game homestand.

Needless to say, a 4-2 or even 3-3 homestand would have done them wonders and left more room for error on the other side, but it wasn’t to be as Houston limped to the finish.

The “Should Be Standings” show a much closer race than the actual standings, suggesting either some luck for the Astros or bad luck for the Mariners and Rangers, or a combination of both.

Something to monitor moving forward.

Note that the Mariners cut 2.4 games off the lead in the final three games before the break.

If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:

The concerning part is that the above was just 11 games before the final series before the All-Star Game.

Now the good news, at least for now…

It’s the time of year to play one of my favorite games: “If the Astros go XX-XX, then…”

The Astros currently lead the season series with the Mariners 4 games to 3, which means the Mariners are effectively 6 games behind.

If the Astros go 33-33 the Mariners will need to go 39-27.

If the Astros go 34-32 the Mariners will need to go 40-26.

If the Astros go 35-31 the Mariners will need to go 41-25.

Simply playing 4 games over .500 (.530) for the balance of the season means Seattle would need to play .621 ball to catch Houston.

Possible, but not likely.

Of course, the tie-breaker could flip in Seattle this weekend, so avoiding getting swept in Seattle would be huge, as the teams finish up with a 3-game set in Houston September 19-21.